I find it's much easier to pick an extremely overbought condition and short, than it is to take your profit in anticipation of a reversal. We are very close to the latter and while past performance is no indication of future events, we can use this information to confirm a theory. For instance, in the past two years, the second week of July brought about a sudden increase in Natural Gas. This is no surprise as the warmer weather increases air conditioning demand and the weekly inventory numbers will reflect this. Will we follow the same pattern this year? Perhaps, but I firmly believe that the closer we get to $4.15 with Natural Gas, we should sell our position and switch to cash. Anticipation of anything less, is just pure greed!


Wesley
http://oilngashedgefund.blogspot.com/