Sixty percent of CEOs believe that the emergence of smart machines
capable of absorbing millions of middle-class jobs within 15 years is a
"futurist fantasy," according to Gartner's 2013 CEO survey. However,
Gartner predicts that smart machines will have widespread and deep
business impact within only seven years through 2020.
"Most business and thought leaders underestimate the potential of smart
machines to take over millions of middle-class jobs in the coming
decades," said Kenneth Brant, research director at Gartner. "Job
destruction will happen at a faster pace, with machine-driven job
elimination overwhelming the market's ability to create valuable new
ones."
Gartner analysts discussed the growing impact of smart machines at
Gartner Symposium/ITxpo, being held here through today.
CIOs must change their mission to address the proliferation of smart
machines in a widening range of jobs and consider the impact this trend
might have on their career paths and on increasing levels of
unemployment, according to Gartner's latest "Maverick" research.
Gartner's Maverick research is designed to spark new, unconventional
insights. Maverick research is unconstrained by Gartner's typical broad
consensus-formation process to deliver breakthrough, innovative and
disruptive ideas from the company's research incubator to help
organizations get ahead of the mainstream and take advantage of trends
and insights that could impact IT strategy and the wider organization.
Machines are evolving from automating basic tasks to becoming advanced
self-learning systems as capable as the human brain in many highly
specialized professions. As such, the next wave of job losses will
likely occur among highly valued specialists during the next decade.
Gartner research has found that many CEOs are failing to recognize the
widespread and deep business impact that smart machines will have
through 2020.
"The bottom line is that many CEOs are missing what could quickly
develop to be the most significant technology shift of this decade,"
said Mr. Brant. "In fact, even today, there is already a multifaceted
marketplace for engineering a 'digital workforce,' backed by major
players on both the supply and demand side. This marketplace comprises
intelligent agents, virtual reality assistants, expert systems and
embedded software to make traditional machines 'smart' in a very
specialized way, plus a new generation of low-cost and easy-to-train
robots and purpose-built automated machines that could significantly
devalue and/or displace millions of humans in the workforce."
Gartner believes that the capability and reliability of smart machines
will dramatically increase through 2020 to the point where they will
have a major impact on business and IT functions. The impact will be
such that firms that have not begun to develop programs and policies for
a "digital workforce" by 2015 will not perform in the top quartile for
productivity and operating profit margin improvement in their industry
by 2020. As a direct result, the careers of CIOs who do not begin to
champion digital workforce initiatives with their peers in the C-suite
by 2015 will be cut short by 2023.
A number of forces are colluding to make this threat a reality, not
least the fact that the technologies for building a large-scale and
diverse scope of smart machines are coalescing and being tested by
"first movers." At the same time ongoing weak revenue growth in the
global economy will spur demand for cost reduction and productivity
improvement by employing smart machines in place of humans.
"It's worth remembering that IT cost is typically about four percent of
annual revenue, whereas the labor costs that can be rationalized by
smart machines are as high as 40 percent of revenue in some knowledge
and service industries," said Mr. Brant. "The supply side of the market
— including IBM, GE, Google, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon — is placing
large bets on the success of smart machines, while the demand side
includes high-profile first movers that will trigger an 'arms race' for
acquiring and/or developing smart machines."
While Gartner maverick research asserts that smart machines will have
widespread and deep impact through 2020, we also recognize there are
significant impediments in the business, political, economic, social and
technology spheres that must be overcome and these include
-
Early pilots will fail to produce desired results
-
The technology will not progress rapidly through the end of this decade
-
The price of technology will not reduce rapidly through the end of
this decade
-
Labor unions will reorganize and successfully oppose the intrusion of
"job-killing" smart machines
-
Citizens will protest higher and more prolonged states of
unemployment, electing governments to legislate against smart machines
-
Consumers will reject the machines — either because of a highly
publicized catastrophe or because of a more subtle and prolonged need
for human interaction
-
People will provide even greater productivity increases than smart
machine replacements.
-
Legal challenges, stemming from the explicit "programmed morality" in
automatic smart machines involved in accidents, will derail the market
for autonomous agents.
"We certainly will not approach a state of mass unemployment at any time
in the near future," said Mr. Brant. "What is also certain, however, is
that many new combinations of technology — from intelligent software
agents, expert systems and virtual reality assistants to software
systems embedded in smart products and revolutionary new forms of
robotics — will emerge and have great impacts in this decade. We won't
need to develop a full-functioning artificial brain by 2020 for smart
machines to have radically changed our business models, workforce, cost
structure and competitiveness."
About Gartner Symposium/ITxpo
Gartner Symposium/ITxpo is the world's most important gathering of CIOs
and senior IT executives. This event delivers independent and objective
content with the authority and weight of the world's leading IT research
and advisory organization, and provides access to the latest solutions
from key technology providers. Gartner's annual Symposium/ITxpo events
are key components of attendees' annual planning efforts. IT executives
rely on Gartner Symposium/ITxpo to gain insight into how their
organizations can use IT to address business challenges and improve
operational efficiency.
Additional information about Gartner Symposium/ITxpo in Orlando is
available at www.gartner.com/symposium/us.
Video replays of keynotes and sessions are available on Gartner Events
on Demand at www.gartnerondemand.com.
Follow news, photos and video coming from Gartner Symposium/ITxpo on
Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/GartnerSymposium,
and on Twitter at http://twitter.com/Gartner_inc
and using #GartnerSym.
Upcoming dates and locations for Gartner Symposium/ITxpo include:
October 15-17, Tokyo, Japan: www.gartner.com/jp/symposium
October 21-24, Goa, India: www.gartner.com/in/symposium
October 28-31, Gold Coast, Australia: www.gartner.com/au/symposium
November 4-7, Sao Paulo, Brazil: www.gartner.com/br/symposium
November 10-14, Barcelona, Spain: www.gartner.com/eu/symposium
Rich scenarios for smart machine adoption and impacts on business and
society plus more detailed analyses are also available in the report
"Maverick* Research: Surviving the Rise of 'Smart Machines,' the Loss of
'Dream Jobs' and '90% Unemployment.'" The report is available on
Gartner's website at http://www.gartner.com/resId=2594820.
The report is part of the Gartner Special Report "Drive Disruptive
Innovation with Maverick* Research." This Special Report explores
high-impact future scenarios that help companies think differently to
uncover opportunity and enable innovation. This collection of research
is intentionally disruptive and edgy to help IT leaders get ahead of the
mainstream and take advantage of trends and insights that could impact
their IT strategy and their organization. The Special Report is
available at http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/maverick/.
About Gartner
Gartner, Inc. (NYSE:IT) is the world’s leading information technology
research and advisory company. Gartner delivers the technology-related
insight necessary for its clients to make the right decisions, every
day. From CIOs and senior IT leaders in corporations and government
agencies, to business leaders in high-tech and telecom enterprises and
professional services firms, to technology investors, Gartner is a
valuable partner in more than 13,000 distinct organizations. Through the
resources of Gartner Research, Gartner Executive Programs, Gartner
Consulting and Gartner Events, Gartner works with every client to
research, analyze and interpret the business of IT within the context of
their individual role. Founded in 1979, Gartner is headquartered in
Stamford, Connecticut, USA, and has 5,800 associates, including more
than 1,450 research analysts and consultants, and clients in 85
countries. For more information, visit www.gartner.com.
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