Bob Peck: Holiday Shopping Forecast Suggests Amazon, eBay Will Meet Estimates

According to comScore, digital e-commerce spending will grow in the 2016 holiday season by 16–19 percent to $79 billion–$81 billion, representing an acceleration in growth compared to a year ago.

Robert "Bob" S. Peck of SunTrust Robinson Humphrey pointed out that over the past two years, “comScore’s eCommerce growth rate has a stable relationship to Amazon and eBay growth rates.”

Peck maintains a Hold rating on Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) and eBay Inc (NASDAQ: EBAY), with a price target of $850 on the former and of $33 on the latter company.

ComScore Forecasts

In addition to the growth suggested by comScore, the analyst expects Cyber Monday to reach $3.5 billion in total, with $1 billion of the spend coming from mobile.

Peck stated that comScore’s forecast appears reasonable, given the modestly easier comps as compared to the 2015 Holiday Season and the acceleration in growth rates year-on-year in Q2 and Q3.

The analyst also noted that these forecasts were in line with the predictions made by eMarketer, of 17 percent, and Deloitte, of 17–10 percent, year-on-year.

In addition, “mobile commerce continues to increase which could extend the shopping season and shopping opportunities,” Peck said, while adding, “expanded categories and improved logistics continue to drive convenience and wallet share gains.”

Amazon And eBay

The analyst pointed out that over the past two years, Amazon’s North America year-on-year revenue growth has beaten the comScore quarterly online retail sales growth rate by an average of 9–10 percent.

With regard to Q4, the comScore forecast of 18–19 percent supports the consensus expectations of 23–24 percent growth in North America.

For eBay, the consensus forecast of 4 percent year-on-year growth in North American GMV also supports the comScore expectations.

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