With Sen. Warren On Board, Likelihood Of TransDigm Investigation Has Clearly Increased

Sen. Elizabeth Warren sent a letter to the Department of Defense Monday requesting an investigation into TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE: TDG) for “potential waste, fraud, and abuse in the military spares market.”

The letter follows up on requests from Reps. Ro Khanna and Tim Ryan, which hit share prices hard, while not adding details or new charges.

Specifically, Warren expressed concern over “reports that suggest TransDigm Worldwide has used a variety of tactics to avoid sharing cost information with the government for parts for which it is the sole source supplier.”

Deutsche Bank analyst Myles Walton expects an investigation to be launched, especially given Warren’s high profile.

Walton published a note Monday to “consider the history” of this sort of investigation.

In March 2015, an Inspector General report was published on the findings of 32 audits concerning spare parts. Other than the frequency of these audits, which took place from 1998 to 2015, “the benign outcomes to contractors that were the subjects of those reports is equally telling.”

In the last two years, there have been 11 more investigations, each of which ended inconsequentially.

Walton maintains his Buy rating and $305 price target for TransDigm.

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