The gold mining industry could be altered by more consolidation — a development that could alter the landscape for relevant
gold miners exchange traded funds.
News broke
Friday that Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: GOLD) is considering merging with rival Nemont Mining Corp. (NYSE:
NEM), a move that would create the world's largest gold
miner.
What Happened
As of Friday, Feb. 22, Barrick and Newmont combined for 19.46 percent of the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF
(NYSE: GDX), the largest gold miners ETF. Barrick, the world's
second-largest gold miner, recently acquired Randgold Resources. The company is considering a $19-billion deal for Newmont,
according to some media reports.
“A deal between the two world's largest bullion miners would create a mega-gold corporation, with assets in almost every
continent, including Australia, Africa, the U.S. and Latin America,” reports Mining.com.
Why It's Important
Newmont is working on a deal to acquire Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG), GDX's seventh-largest holding at a weight of 4.76 percent. If that deal is
scuttled, Barrick would have to pay a $650-million breakup fee, according to Mining.com. Newmont's $10 billion for Goldcorp, which
was announced last month, would create the world's largest gold miner in terms of market value and production.
Pan American Silver Corp. (NASDAQ: PAAS), a smaller GDX holding, is acquiring Tahoe Resources Inc.
(NYSE: TAHO) for nearly $1.1 billion.
Barrick's move to acquire Randgold Resources, which was announced in September, is seen as the deal that kickstarted much-needed
industry consolidation.
If Barrick and Newmont come together, Goldcorp could be left without a partner, and smaller players in GDX's lineup — such
as Anglogold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE: AU) and
Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE: KGC) — could
become takeover targets as well.
What's Next
Gold miners have worked to improve balance sheets, reducing debt following some ill-timed acquisitions at the height of the
commodities cycle. Improving balance sheets, coupled with the need to bolster reserves because most of the world's easy-to-access
bullion has already been mined, could spur increased industry consolidation.
GDX and other gold miner ETFs have made habits of lagging broader equity benchmarks during the recent bull market in
domestic stocks. From 2013 through 2018, 2016 was the only year in which GDX beat the S&P 500.
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