(A) Nuclear as a Function of Total Energy
As of 2008, the planet consumed 143,900 Terawatt-hours of energy. That includes all the energy that powers cities and homes and industries – namely electrical energy on electrical grids – and energy consumed by the transport sector – automobiles, ships, airplanes, trains, etc. Approximately 83% of all that energy was generated with fossil fuels. About 5.8% was powered by 435 operable nuclear reactors. If nuclear energy is scalable, cheap, reliable, safe, and clean, why does it not account for a much larger share of global energy capacity? Let’s speculate that governments and industry by the year 2050 correctly realize that civilian nuclear energy should be contributing 50% of global energy.
(B) Population Growth
That the population of the world is constantly growing is self-evident. The United Nations projects that the world population by the year 2050 will be between 8.3 and 10.9 billion. That’s a 24% to 63% increase over 2008’s population. That’s anywhere from 1.6 to 3.2 billion more people using energy.
(C) Industrialization of the Developing World
As of 2008, the world population was 6.7 billion. One could rightly say that every single person on Earth, on average, consumed about 21.5 Megawatt-hours (MWh) of energy in 2008. Of course, this is only an average. People living in highly industrialized societies, like the United States, for example, use much more energy. Americans in 2008 consumed 87.2 MWh per person, four times the global average. People living in India in 2008 consumed 6.3 MWh per person, less than a third of the global average. The reason for this is obvious. There were in 2008, over one billion people on Earth who did not have access to electricity. They still consume energy, just not very much of it, and not from the grid. What would happen if most people in the world by the year 2050 had the same standard of living as the USA currently enjoys? What would happen to global energy consumption?
(D) Death of Coal
Very few people would question the logic of coal-fired plants being obsolete and environmentally unsavoury. Let’s put it this way, if we could think of a way to get rid of coal plants, and still have energy, we would do it tomorrow. But wait, there is a good way to get rid of coal plants, and it is by building nuclear reactors. Nuclear reactors are rightly taking the place of coal plants all over the world, especially in places that are not in the immediate vicinity of giant natural gas fields.
(E) Electrification of the Transport Sector
Obviously, the transport sector cannot be powered by nuclear energy, which only powers electrical grids. But what if it could? Electric cars are now a technological reality. Witness Tesla Motors, with their ingenious 100% electric car, and their network of free charging stations across North America. If automobiles are electric, there is absolutely no reason why boats, trains, airplanes and any other modes of transport cannot be electric as well. (Most trains and buses in the first world already are electric.) Certainly, the entire transport sector could not be taken off of fossil fuels, but let’s just be spunky and make the suggestion that up to 75% will be by the year 2050.
(A) x (B) x (C) x (D) x (E) = ? Nuclear Reactors
Let’s take those 10.9 billion people that the UN is projecting to exist, and let’s project upon their fortunate souls the average standard of living that the USA enjoyed in 2008. That’s 950,654 Terawatt-hours, an increase of 560% over 2008 energy consumption. Now if the transport sector goes 75% on the grid, that reduces down all energy consumption for a fossil fuel driven transport sector to a reasonable 7% of total global energy consumption. If nuclear energy is powering 50% of the balance, that works out to 442,054 Terawatt-hours. That’s equal to 442 million Gigawatt-hours. To have the capacity to fuel that consumption, there must be an installed base of 50,463 Gigawatts-electric (GWe) of nuclear energy. (Divide GWh by the number of hours in a year: 8,760.) With the average reactor being approximately 1 GWe in size, the world will require 50,463 nuclear reactors by the year 2050 – up from the 435 we had in 2008. Let’s say only 20% of the world’s grid is powered by nuclear – like the USA is now – that’s still well over 20,000 reactors – up from the 427 installed in the world today.
We better get building!
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