- BioCryst Pharma speaks to us
- Looking at Lithium and CLQ, WLC
- Great Panther & Endeavour Silver
- New Orleans: Profit central in October
BioCryst Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: BCRX), via the influenza and leukemia drug maker’s new business development and investment relations executive, spoke with Ticker Trax this week.
Robert Bennett, with 10 years atseveralbiopharmaceutical companies, including Celera and Germany’s Merck AG, told me there are “no major roadblocks” in the company’s peramivir discussions with U.S. health officials. Mr. Bennett, speaking to me from Raleigh, North Carolina, said “a lot of progress has been made.”
BioCryst hopes to receive Emergency Use Authorization for its H1N1 anti-viral peramivir, which is already on its way toward rapid approvals in Japan. Peramivir has shown in Asia trials to be more effective as an intravenous treatment for so-called “swine flu” than other anti-virals currently on the market.
Mr. Bennett also told me the company’s meetings with several large investors in Boston and NYC meetings were in no way connected with a need to raise capital via equity offerings.
“We have plenty of cash going through most if not all of 2010,” he said. “We owed some meetings given the state of things around here and had not been on the road in a while.” The U.S. Department of Health & Human Services, anticipating along with the World Health Organization a problematic influenza season in both north and south hemispheres, is providing as much as $100 million or so to BioCryst in its development of peramivir.
BioCryst will focus Phase III clinical trials for peramivir on hospitalized patients in the United States. Primary and secondary endpoints for the trials are in development at the company’s labs in North Carolina.
In addition, BioCryst expects to receive another large payment from Japan partner Shionogi for achieving the regulatory milestone of having cleared human testing of protein inhibitor peramivir in Japan and South Korea clinical trials on hospitalized patients suffering from the H1N1 virus.
As for forodesine, theleukemia drug candidate’s human trial is approximately 70% completed in the United States. Mr. Bennett said the company expects results in the first half of 2010.
“The trials are hard to enroll,” he said. Forodesine is designed to treat a slow-development lymphoma that infiltrates the blood of some 1,500 Americans each year. This type of leukemia afflicts about 18,000 Americans at present, he said.
As for peramivir, the price per 300 mg unit is largely unknown to the general public. Speculation that I am reluctant to repeat suggests a wholesale price anywhere between $100 and $300. This “ballpark” figure might prove to be way off in either direction.
Were peramivir to receive an EUA from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, along with sanctioning by the Food & Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control, government stockpiling of the antiviral treatment in North America could produce orders for 5 million to 10 million IV doses and perhaps more.
Mr. Bennett said there are no supply-side or quality control challenges in producing the compound. I hope at some point to get other questions answered. These include an estimate of the “shelf life” of peramivir and the possibility of side-effects in pregnant women and children. I want to thank newsletter writer Michael Murphy of New World Investor for coaching me on one or two other scientific points regarding influenza and antivirals – a subject I have been following for four years.
If, heaven forbid, transmissibility or virulence of H1N1 accelerates in the autumn, BioCryst shares easily could surpass $20 each.
We here at home have raised our ownership of BioCryst in the past week to approximately 61,000 shares. BCRX is a one of eight Planetary Prospects of Ticker Trax. I have no intention of selling any shares until specific development occur – or fail to occur – regarding the company and its novel method of drug discovery (crystallography). The shares, as with the other seven Prospects, are extremely risky.
-- Ticker Trax is back from Guanajuato in Mexico, where two companies, Great Panther Resources (TSX: T.GPR) and Endeavour Silver (TSX: T.EDR and AMEX: EXK), are extending a 400-year tradition of silver mining the Veta Madre and related veins. News is forthcoming on several fronts from both companies, which are two of our eight Planetary Prospects.
I intend to provide full coverage of the visits, and photos (several here—including the main shaft of historic mine Valenciana owned by Great Panther above), in a coming issue. Great Panther is experiencing near-quantum leaps in average yields of concentrate (after the milling process). The concentrate being load
ed onto trucks for delivery to smelter was yielding an average 19 kilos of silver per tonne and 100 grams of gold – up from a second-quarter average of about 13 kg silver and 70 grams gold, the day I was there.
Endeavour Silver, at the same time, is harvesting extraordinarily rich veins that the company has marked along the walls of several of its area mines in Guanajuato. By extraordinary I mean extraordinary, and I have a rock or two to show for it.
Based on those improvements, and the information plus photos (two here) that we will publish soon in Ticker Trax, I am expecting a sharp rise in Endeavour’s average grades of ore from Guanajuato.
I also expect Great Panther’s recovery rates, profit margins, cash flows and its silver production from Guanajuato, one of two properties the company owns in Mexico. I can envision the shares, which sell for about half the valuation multiple (choose your metric) of neighboring Endeavour Silver, doubling in short order from their current 63 cents Canadian.
At some point in the next 12 months, Bob Archer’s Great Panther could see friendly and hostile bids for the entire company, regardless of the silver price. Brad Cooke’s Endeavour Silver, which is also a silver component and Planetary Prospect of Ticker Trax, is also compelling as an investment – at current prices. As with all Planetary Prospects, we own both here at home.
-- Ticker Trax is discussing a collaboration on a new Instant Value Service, utilizing David Banister’s skills at wave analysis, technical charting and knowledge of pharmaceutical and natural resources companies, products and economics. David’s most recent 50-plus choices, such as NovaGold Resources (NG), are faring well – in some cases very well. Average hold period: 3 ½ days. Average gain: 25%.
His fast trading is not for the queasy, and it certainly is not the central theme of Ticker Trax, which does little to no market timing and little to no charting. Last week, for instance. Mr. Banister gave subscribers of his just unveiled ATP service, which sells for $249 per month, the ticker RPRX. The bio-pharmaceuticals company killed a critical human trial on one of its drug, halving the stock price overnight.
“We advised extreme risk and a small position,” he told me. David is extremely positive about gold, silver and other commodities. He also sees the S&P 500 Index in the U.S. stock market rising another 15% or more this summer and autumn.
His service is called Active Trading Partners, and the web site is now live. His latest: “Linear Gold (LRR) is a micro cap gold stock, and I usually will hesitate to put these on the ATP service, but this one looks like a great value going forward, and I like the chart set up here as well. I would like to see a pullback to 1.55-1.64 ranges to accumulate a bit more aggressively. The problem is, it may not happen and this type of pattern can keep on running. So, my suggestion is to take an initial position at no more than $1.70 Canadian.”
He continues, “Basics are they got caught in a lengthy court battle with GLR Resources for control of a Goldfields project in Canada. Long story short is LRR finally won the battle in late May of this year. They have multiple exploration targets ongoing, but the potential cash flow and balance sheet are a winner here for ATP research.”
His math: “They are planning on 90,000 ounces a year of production, I am going to use a net profit of $450 per ounce after expenses. That’s about 40 million per year. I’m going to subtract 10% debt of 58 million needed to get the mine operation up and running, so netting about $33 million gross cash flow.”
Finally: “Shares outstanding are 34 million,” Mr. Banister says. “That’s a market cap of $68 million Canadian, or less than 2x future projected net cash flows. They have $24 million in the bank, zero debt currently and multiple drill projects.”
One of our own Ticker Trax Instant Value candidates, Canada Lithium (TSX: V.CLQ), is at 50 cents Canadian, having more than doubled in the short order of roughly three months. I have been speaking with new CEO Kerry Knoll, who has no reason why the shares have been surging of late. Shares of Western Lithium (TSX: V.WLC) are also rising smartly. We were considering making one of the two companies, or both, Planetary Prospects, but the desire for lithium and rare element companies seems to be captivating investors right now, thus making the shares look a bit dear.
New Orleans: When October rolls around,mostof me always wants to be 1) fishing with friends; and 2) in New Orleans at one of North America’s most diversified investment conferences. The New Orleans Investment Conference has in the past given me great satisfaction in terms of time spent meeting colleagues, subscribers and real miners, scientists and alternative economists. I’ll be presenting a down-and-dirty workshop at this year’s gathering; I hope some of you can join me.
Brien Lundin of The Gold Newsletter produces the conference, whichruns Oct. 8-11. Many of my trusted colleagues and investment sources attend the show. This year will bring an excellent crop of counter-clockwise and contrary thinkers in the areas of mining, emerging markets, commodities and life sciences. Folks who make few appearances tend to show for this show – blueblood Adam Fleming from London and chartist Ian McAvity from Canada, for instance. I encourage subscribers who have the time and money to attend by clicking here. Those who cannot can contact me for any and all information I gather there.
One thing about this New Orleans event that tickles my toes are the select companies that decide to stake out the show with their executives. At this go-round, NovaGold is in the New Orleans bin, as are Great Panther Silver (TSX: T.GPR) and CEO Robert Archer (We own shares of Mr. Archer’s Mexican Panther); and Wits Gold (OTO: WIWTY) and its founder, Mr. Fleming.
Several dozen companies in all, nearly all in natural resources and about half of them worth reviewing, attend this gathering, which goes back to the mid-1970s. Another big plus is that Mr. Lundin is not afraid of controversy, which is why he always invites Robert Prechter of Elliot Wave Theory.
If you are interested, please visit this link for registration. (And please email me with your plans to attend so that we can meet up.) The last New Orleans show I went to, and spoke at, was a corker … and gave me at least two leads that changed my portfolio life.
In early September: Iwill be visiting the Nevada gold mine properties of Great Basin Gold (TSX: T. GBG), which is a Planetary Prospect. Other news: J.C. Stefan Spicer’s Silver Bullion Trust will IPO later this week. The new company, a repository for silver, is a cousin to our Central Fund of Canada (TSX: T.CEF.A ) repository for gold and silver.
That is all for now. Thank you for subscribing! (We own no shares of Canada Lithium or Western Lithium or Linear Gold here at home.)
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Ticker Trax™ is published by Stockgroup Media Inc. Ticker Trax is an information service for subscribers and neither Stockhouse nor Thom Calandra is a broker or an investment advisor. None of the information contained therein constitutes a recommendation by Mr. Calandra or Stockhouse/Stockgroup Media that any particular security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Ticker Trax does not purport to tell or suggest the investment securities subscribers or readers should buy or sell for themselves. Subscribers and readers of Ticker Trax should conduct their own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decisions. Ticker Trax will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by a reader’s reliance on information obtained in the reports. Subscribers and readers are solely responsible for their own investment decisions. Opinions expressed in Ticker Trax are based on sources believed to be reliable and are written in good faith, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. All information contained in Ticker Trax should be independently verified. The editor and publisher are not responsible for errors or omissions or responsible for keeping information up to date or for correcting any past information. Ticker Trax does not receive compensation of any kind from any companies that may be mentioned in the report. Any opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Owners, employees and writers may hold positions in the securities that are discussed in Ticker Trax. PLEASE DO NOT EMAIL THOM SEEKING PERSONALIZED INVESTMENT ADVICE, WHICH HE CANNOT PROVIDE. Copyright 2009 all rights reserved.
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