Lion One Metals Ltd V.LIO

Financials

[Puma1back]

Well it is pretty easy to see why they had to do the capital raise. They ended the 3qtr with the $12m capital raise in the bank.

the run rate was $10 m a qtr for the last 2 qtr's so they have to improve or the kitty is empty the end of June.

[nozzpack]

$10 million per quarter is just 3000 ounces of Production and my estimate is 7000+ ounces for Q2, so another equity raise at exit June is unlikely to be needed....might even be in cash 

[Puma1back]

looking at the MDA they did 450 oz in 10 days of May so if they can duplicate Q3 and do about 80 days should be close to 4000 oz. So more like $9 million in Q4 revenues, but cost of sales is the key. Will they at least have a positive gross margin, or at least positive ebitda? In December they took a $3 million hit to inventory and charged cost of goods. Looks like this quarter there was a

[Puma1back]

sorry - forgot they report in cdn dollars so Revenues could be $12.5 million to $14 million in Q4.   

[nozzpack]

You assume only development grade ore will be mined which is not true....grades began increasing in early May, and mineralized ore will flow through the mill. I stick with 7000 ounces for this quarter Xxxx Subsequent to the quarter ended on March 31, 2024, the Company’s mining and milling operations have improved significantly. For the month of April, the Company milled 9,406 tonnes, 314TPD

[Puma1back]

I am just being conservative on the numbers nozz - $15m in revenue would be a good thing nozz. if they come in higher  as you consider, given grade improvement, all the better.    

[Puma1back]

Well you can always count on a Gap up in a stock to get closed and looks like it happened pretty fast. The 60 cents wall of resistance held notwithstanding some decent volume and we rolled over to fill the gap. Most golds were hit yesterday with that $40 gold reversal. even a few sentences in June about gold oz production in May  would give us a good boost , but they do like to be quiet over