3 Options and the Debt restructuring Given the following options there should be no difference in value to the holder - The value will be based on future earnings/outlook as it always has:
Using 1.35 $ per share original purchase - say 1000 shares
1) Sell Now - Sell at 3.32 - Realize a gain of $1 970 - Give up rights by doing this
2) Sell the rights when they trade freely: Based on previous post sell them for $1.19 - Get $1 190 - reduce your average cost base (ACB) to 1.35 - 1.19 or 16 Cents. Stock is trading $2.11 (previous post) so gain is $1 950
3) Exercise Rights: Buy 1388 shares at 1.25 Each for $1 735 - New ACB is
(1350 + 1735) / 2388 shares = $1.29
$2.11 - $1.29 = $0.82 times 2388 shares = $1 960 gain
i.e. no difference in the 3 scenarios
I think most arent looking at the very positive impact the debt restructuring will have
They paid 47 Million in interest in fiscal 2011 - With the restructuring they will pay 350 * 7.5% or 26 Million ie. a reduction of 20 Million in interest annually
In an up market their EV to EBITDA runs 7 to 8 times so 20 * 7 = 140 Million in additional equity value / 240 million shares means the debt restructuring post rights conversion is worth an additional $0.58 per share.