RE:hey goldguy goodday
As far as TA analysis goes, ANV had high volume share liquidation into the Nov. low and even higher liquidation into the slightly lower Dec. low.
So far, this looks like climactic selling and what you want to see at a bottom.
Comex gold had a similar bottom except the Dec bottom was a bit higher than Nov.
Other then the selling in ANV related to share dilution, ANV has advanced on good volume and sold off on less volume.
Same as Comex gold and this is bullish.
We are in a seasonally strong period for the metals and that is helping the miners.
Also, US equities appear to be topping and that is positive for gold, since the gold miners tend to move counter cyclically to equities.
I am currently net short US equities and we may have put in an important top there.
If so, gold should shine brighter this year.
I still consider ANV to be very speculative, because of the debt issues, but as I have said before, they have great assets that become quite valuable at about $1350 POG and higher.
It appears that 1350 needs to be reached in 6-12 months in order to keep the company solvent without more share dilution or JV partnership or selling a royalty.
So I view ANV as call options with good leverage to gold, but with a 6-12 month expiration.
I am aggressively long the PM sector including long miners and long Comex gold and silver, but I am also aware that a 6-12 month time frame is rather short and gold could disappoint in that time frame.
If a speculator can live with that high risk scenario, ANV is a decent speculation.
I hold a fairly small position in ANV and it is not an important part of my overall long PM positions.
I am not interested in further accumulation of ANV shares until/unless gold gets to that 1350 level.
At that point the SP may start to provide great leverage to gold and at much lower risk than now.
As far as overhead resistance goes, the SP is now above its 50 day moving average and this is positive.
Horizontal price resistance is on the chart at about 1.40 to 2.00, so that could slow the advance for awhile.
If SP can get through that zone, I don't see much resistance on chart until about the 3.00 area.
As I have said before, I think that it is important to diversify PM holdings over at least 10 juniors for those who hold juniors and at least 5 producers for those who hold producers.
There is nothing more frustrating, for a trader, than to be right about the direction of gold, but not be rewarded because you aren't in the right shares to benefit.
goldguy