RE:RE:CEO Purchased Half Million Shares!-I wouldn't put too much stock in what Goldman has to say. This is the same bozo who thought it prudent to trade Tribute growth for a single bet on Yosprala that didn't pay off (yet?). He's also sold off more than half his stake so it goes to show you how committed he is.
-Deerfield being committed today doesn't mean they'll be committed tomorrow if the market discounts ARLZ to cash. ($1). Ackman pulled out of Valeant eventually for the write off, there's nothing to say Deerfield won't end the adventure if/when its accountants decide the write-off is more valuable going forward than the prospects of getting their money back.
-Just like it was in the dotcom days, the dropping tidewaters show who was swimming without any clothes on. Biotech went through a long bubble, which, if you were a company with a corporate office, a ton of debt, and a few drugs to your name, you too could have been recognized as a 'genius'. Don't put too much stock into Adams former achievements, or at least remember that during a bubble, everyone is a genius.
-Nobody has said anything about how much it will cost to launch Zontivity, the seeming new focus of ARLZ, or at least, the new distraction. Even if Yosprala numbers grow, there's nothing to say that growth can't be gobbled up by a failed Zontivity launch.
-Consider the possibility Merck got rid of Zontivity for a reason.
-Consider the possibility ARLZ won't be able to refinance their debt, and with rising interest rates, this may become problematic. If you still hold this stock in any appreciable amounts, I'd email investor relations and ask them about the terms and conditions of their debt - find out if rising interest rates will be a factor for the company.
-Consider the the possibility Adams and Co are in denial. As traders, I'm sure we've all done it, clinging onto an investement beyond all reason and hope, throwing good mony after bad. Lots of people do this, CEO and retail investor alike.
-Management's claim of 2017 profitibility was WAY off. If they were THIS wrong, how can you believe any of their other projections?