Old API Wind-down Ltd - Ordinary Shares ARLZQ

FYI

[GoldenDilemma]

See, when you have a large bulk of institutions holding stock, they are already in. They own +/- right up to the 10% mark.

Their positions are locked and secured. Adding more creates a dynamic where they'd have to go into activist shareholder mode. Deerfield is the dominant force behind the company, essentially. They can narrate what goes on behind the scenes 

When all these guys are long, all it takes is the shorts to hit the price each day. There is no one strong enough on the buy side simply because they are already locked in. The tutes that own ~45% are basically trapped and the average retail investor cannot afford to scale a war against the shorts that likely keep enough liquidity around to add more to their short position.

Then, when shorts cover, the price goes up and every retail shareholder and their neighbour thinks this is the reversal we've all been waiting for... to which the spike is then reshorted.

If you want to see how the stock behaves when shorts are not hanging around, go look what happened a month before Yosprala approval. Once it was approved, they were right back... because they know drug approval is irrelevant. The company is being discounted on their debt and the anticipated lack of success for the drugs they are acquiring. Now, the lack of success of Yosprala is more evident... but, go ahead and say "it'll get better in the future". How about: Wait until the results show it and then decide to go long? 

The force behind this company is strong. Longs have no support to the share price. The shorts have, and will continue to have, full control until they have a reason to leave.

Anyone long in the name who is in la-la land over how great the future is: 

- look at the chart from August 2015
- look at how the price has responded to the "great development" of ARLZ
- look to the forthcoming risk

It's your choice to "wait around and see what happens" in the future. Just like every other illiquid long who is getting fisted by short sellers.

The sheer naivety of ARLZ/CXRX/VRX/ etc etc etc longs is unfortunate. You guys really need to smell the other side of the story here rather than accelerating a loss and just sitting on the side lines "waiting to see what the future holds"

Just a thought, if the sales force is being reduced for Yosprala, what does that mean for their Canadian and European plans for approval? 

Furthermore, now the focus is on Zontivity. The market will now evaluate that as such: 

- costs to launch it
- show me the money of sales

Until then... let's hear the bull case again.