Old API Wind-down Ltd - Ordinary Shares ARLZQ

FYI

[GoldenDilemma]

See, when you have a large bulk of institutions holding stock, they are already in. They own +/- right up to the 10% mark.

Their positions are locked and secured. Adding more creates a dynamic where they'd have to go into activist shareholder mode. Deerfield is the dominant force behind the company, essentially. They can narrate what goes on behind the scenes 

When all these guys are long, all it takes is the shorts to hit the price each day. There is no one strong enough on the buy side simply because they are already locked in. The tutes that own ~45% are basically trapped and the average retail investor cannot afford to scale a war against the shorts that likely keep enough liquidity around to add more to their short position.

Then, when shorts cover, the price goes up and every retail shareholder and their neighbour thinks this is the reversal we've all been waiting for... to which the spike is then reshorted.

If you want to see how the stock behaves when shorts are not hanging around, go look what happened a month before Yosprala approval. Once it was approved, they were right back... because they know drug approval is irrelevant. The company is being discounted on their debt and the anticipated lack of success for the drugs they are acquiring. Now, the lack of success of Yosprala is more evident... but, go ahead and say "it'll get better in the future". How about: Wait until the results show it and then decide to go long? 

The force behind this company is strong. Longs have no support to the share price. The shorts have, and will continue to have, full control until they have a reason to leave.

Anyone long in the name who is in la-la land over how great the future is: 

- look at the chart from August 2015
- look at how the price has responded to the "great development" of ARLZ
- look to the forthcoming risk

It's your choice to "wait around and see what happens" in the future. Just like every other illiquid long who is getting fisted by short sellers.

The sheer naivety of ARLZ/CXRX/VRX/ etc etc etc longs is unfortunate. You guys really need to smell the other side of the story here rather than accelerating a loss and just sitting on the side lines "waiting to see what the future holds"

Just a thought, if the sales force is being reduced for Yosprala, what does that mean for their Canadian and European plans for approval? 

Furthermore, now the focus is on Zontivity. The market will now evaluate that as such: 

- costs to launch it
- show me the money of sales

Until then... let's hear the bull case again.

[kuatolives]

I hate to keep cr@pping all over this because people feel bad enough as it is, but I don't want to see people ride this thing to zero. Yeah, I'm bitter, cause a 700k loss tends to do that to people, but this morning's news release is confirmation that yosprala numbers are going nowhere fast, nor do they expect them to. It's only been a year and they've already laid off 30% of

[2quick154]

I sold this morning at $2.74 on TSX.  Took a loss which was painful considering I bought my TRX shares at $0.50 and they hit $2.30ish at one point. My greed cost me a lot of money, but lesson learned... have only been investing for a few years. Uses the money to buy more PLI.

[kuatolives]

Go thank Goldman for his good work over on the seeking alpha board.  According to him, the merger was a godsend. 

[GoldenDilemma]

ARZ now worth what TRX YTD highs were! +/-

[kuatolives]

Unbelievable. I change my opinion. Harris was the only one who knew what he was doing.  Of course, he absolutely robbed his shareholders, but he was the only one who came out ahead. This is hitting a buck. If anyone is left, get out.

[kuatolives]

Well, my prediction of 1.50 before 2.00 turned out true.

[bobyback]

DO you think this company still have potential? Should i invest at 2.00$? Im late in the news here Im invested in MBX.TO

[GoldenDilemma]

Boby, prepare for a world of pain if coming to a message board asking others on what you should do with your money is how you go about doing things. 

[bobyback]

Thanks for the comment. I just dont understand the sell off. I dont think this Worth 2$ cad... but more

[GoldenDilemma]

You gotta dig a bit deeper and read between the lines to understand the depreciation in names like ARLZ, CXRX, VRX, etc.

[kuatolives]

Anybody still long here? Or have the lights gone out?

[Bigboyone]

Maybe worth a shot at $1.00, remember when Tribute was 25-33 c??? Feels like a reverse split .014 x $6.00 start Aralez is not going to be $9-10 for a long time,and  the only ones who really made money here are the MM and Institutions. Cant get much worse, can it? I see a "dead cat bounce" but that will be met with more shorting and until some real solid $$ on our earnings side, ARLZ

[kuatolives]

If the thing hits a buck, there's no way I'd be confident enough to buy a single share. They would basically be redlining bankruptcy at that point. The dead cat bounce could come from 50 cents to 75 or something like that. The one dollar mark isn't magical in any way.

[Floridas2000]

The worst place to be in for a trader is to have a stock that's either a) a falling knife or b) a rocket ship.   I hate them both because you want to be out of that stock before it falls and in that stock before it takes off.  Right now it's a falling knife.  Should the stock be hammered, absolutely.  Yosprala is not hitting the numbers they should.  They

[GoldenDilemma]

Let's revisit this post and these words of yours after a disappointing Q1 readout. If you think emotional selling is what has bled this company out over 12+ months, think again.