RE: RE: RE: Value of Arcan Metrics like flowing BOE, and $$ per barrel of oil are standard metrics used to value a takeout and are the only way to really value a Company... However, those metrics can be skewed because you don't know what else is behind the scenes that someone is paying for.
Arcan is a perfect example, if they get taken out say at $4.00 (just as an example - EV of $700mil or so) the flowing BOE and $$ per barrel metric will seem on the high side, but when you consider the infrastructure and tax pools (Which I estimate is worth $150mil to an acquiror minimum, or $1.50 per shre), the metrics would appear more in line with recent takeovers.
I beleive that the reserves will have a significant increase int he new year, so it makes me wonder if someone will make a move to acquiror ARN prior to the reserve update or if everyone is waiting to see what those reserves actually are?
Considering they've booked reserves on less than half their land, considering the VP exploration and the VP of engineering (who should know how the waterflood is coming along), and considering PBN bought almost 20% of the Company (You'd think PBN must have learned something about the economics of the play in their farm-in deals with ARN) - One would think that ARN may have turned the corner here and they will slowly gain the markets confidence back (unless they get taken out of course),
Long and strong!