RE:RE:RE:NG Update from 2 weeks ago Good morning Crete, simply put ETF's are legalized gambling and trade mostly nothing like traditional stocks hence the 2 for 1 temptation.
So some ramblings,
A group of us have traded primarily NG ETF's for roughly 15 years together because NG gives the most bang on the buck unlike Oil which moves too slow. Many highs and many lowsin the early days while trying to become proficient in minimizing a potential loss, nothing like getting seriously burnt to understand it is quite reliant on solely commodity fundamentals.
There are no lessons I can provide without requiring pages and pages to do so, therefore read, read, read, to get an understanding how they are managed.
Create multiple charts on different time frames for the commodity itself long and short term. Understand you are not trading off of current prices but future month/s. Seasonal, storage, production, weather all play their role.
Not for the weak of heart at times and hands on commitment may be required, can be just like a job.
Never be all in especially on the way down given uncertainty, even a right position can be wrong thanks to erosion and rollovers and see little in the way of profit.
We have found swing trades geared to weekly reports are most successful more often than not. Weekends can be deadly if it looks like the commodity rise or fall has exhausted on the week post report.
Look at it this way though, how much profit would be left on the table on HND if someone was in and out everyday. An $8 buy in and hold sees a $100 right now given the cycle of $10 NG high down to where it currently is.
It can be fun, beats going to the casino or buying lottery tickets but trading them does require commitment and playing mostly with money you can afford to lose.
I believe we will still see 1.58 +/- NG and do not rule out 1.40ish annomaly. I consider the likely start of a position in the higher 1.60's and may make up to 4 more positional buys if necessary, then a positional managed hold to see 2.60 NG high (gap) possibility.
That could see a 3.50 HNU average with an 8.50 exit target. Potential not bad even though NG prices will continue to suck. Lastly that's the plan today lol, ask me again on Friday, cheers.