Birchcliff Energy Ltd BIREF

NG Update from 2 weeks ago

[GuidoSan1]

Happy Friday, 2 weeks ago I posted some long term cyclical (20 years) declining price targets on NG and decided to offer an update to those price targets all of course IMO.

Realize Monday begins trading April NG futures 100% putting the shoulder season fully in play. Kudos to whomever it was that just noted that NG production continues to be at an all time record high, and with serious winter about over for the US including the NE triangle only total manipulation would see the start of a rise from the current low to end this week.

Side bar note, I read a soundly written argument where Canada could see AECO hit a low of zero or negative for a blip and although it will not have the same effect on HH it highlights the fact that production in the US continues to be a record pace but so do exports. Further accentuates the fact that Trudope is a complete dumb azz like his father before him, when it comes to taking Canada's energy to a worldly market. Hopefully an elected Pollievre can further support a reversal even if it takes years to catch up.

IMO all 2 1/2 +/-
So here are the updated numbers, 1.85 hit to a 2 1/2% +/- low almost to the penny at 1.81ish to end the week.
This brings a newly developed 20 year weekly support line of around 1.72 as the next likely target area but it is weak long term support at beThe range cycle the current decline is in has happened to a tee previously in 2020, 2016, 2012, and 2009, and believe me it is uncanny.

RSI long term still has approximately another 25% to go from current level to reach the historical oversold area,

Having said that then if 1.72 area tested next stop in play would see 1.58 area as another weak long term support line to a completed cyclical range bottom of 1.52.

And as we all know a little more inflicted pain could see an anomaly low of 1.43. Not pretty but backup the truck with positional buys on HNU  starting 1.66 area to 1.52 low for a target sell area in the 2.50 to 2.60 (gap) area NG summer season.

All in a perfect world of course, it seems so obvious lol, what could go wrong then? Hahaha cheers.

[GuidoSan1]

I should finish the thought process to my post. A continued slow decline brings all targets noted into possible play. From here a very short term answer to current price could see a climb to 2.10 to 2.15 area, chance 30% then likely a rapid free fall to retest and possibly test lower targets again signaling it's then likely over when rapid decline exhausts. Fun spec, what the hell do I know.

[PlutusofCrete]

Guido - serious question on the HNU play if NG hits 1.60-1.70 - would you hold HNU for multiple days or open and exit the position each day? I'm still trying to understand these leveraged NG ETFs. My lack of understanding forces me to buy the producers instead. 

[GuidoSan1]

Good morning Crete, simply put ETF's are legalized gambling and trade mostly nothing like traditional stocks hence the 2 for 1 temptation. So some ramblings, A group of us have traded primarily NG ETF's for roughly 15 years together because NG gives the most bang on the buck unlike Oil which moves too slow. Many highs and many lowsin the early days while trying to become proficient

[PlutusofCrete]

Thank you for the response Guido. Looking at HNU it is at $4.18 getting close to that $3.50 range.  I'm nowhere close to as good an investor as you.  I might be better to try my hand at catching the bottom on BIR if the HH prices continue walking down to $1.50 range.  To make sure I understand what you're saying, you would look to get an avg price of HNU at $3.50 and hold

[GuidoSan1]

Crete, let me first suggest there is no urgency to invest in the U side, NG could lavish for weeks or 2 to 3 months at a perceived bottom before finally getting on its way for what could be a late seasonal summer rise. HND currently remains the play to a potential finish in the $144 area. Already in just a day the numbers and target area to begin a position U side have changed with the continued

[MrT2020]

NG is going lower period .... production is thru the roof and storage is full . How low can it go ?  Lower for sure

[YupnDump]

KEEP your eyes on EIA report thusday am...look for increased storage and lower TOU and BIR(post valentines gift to hit your heart..)