Do you factor Global recession into recovery scenario?Why do fund managers think the good times will roll on forever...
$80 crude, $100 crude? sounds like a perfect scenario, assumes global growth continues etc, Trump the d*mb f*kc, is doing a great job at derailing it. What is he thinking (if at all)? : my economy is strong enough, stock market strong, might as well do this trade war with everyone now, we can take a hit, it wont be so bad, but these guys will know who'se boss, i'll please my redneck hillbilly deplorable supporters, scr*ew my allies,
Look at emerging markets - rolling over for a a few months now, Europe slowing,
So the recovery of close to bankrupt oil patch juniors in this country has been going on for a year and a half. Can they really recover ? Gonna take a few more years, and the $80 and $100 crude guesstimates are nice and all, but if the survival of these companies is based on this scenario of 2+ more years of rising crude, what happens if we end up in a global recession? The exact opposite - crude demand plummets or at least sentiment does. When recession hits US, crude will be falling not rising, so the 1-2 year outlook based on today's economic picture is just 1 scenario. Nutall and others are looking at crude demand in a vacuum, where global growth continues (steady as she goes), although there are already signs of reversal of that scenario
Many expect a US recession in 1.5 to 2 years, and its by far the strongest economy in the world...
good luck