From the Text Book...Many of you have contributed some fine analysis and some well thoughtout, but - opposing theories. Who will be right?
I lightened up to 1/3 of my position which is now essentially within pennies of being free shares - and I will ride these out as a gamble/ bet on things having a positive resolution - either with production announcement or Lazard - or possibly both.
I had a look in a text book I have: "High Probability Trading: by Marcel Link. Here are a few quotes form the chapter covering charts and situations like this. One subtitle I love - "IF IT SHOULD GO LOWER BUT DOESN'T - IT'S GOING HIGHER" - It goes on to talk about the bad news already factored in - and the market will shake off 'slightly' negative news and move with the aggregate trend based on earlier buying. Being that previous buying already figured out future value. I guess you could also assume that earlier buying had some solid clues about what was coming.
GETTING THE MOST OUT OF THE FUNDAMENTALS - Get the Whole Picture. Well I say you have all contributed some credible options - but do we really have access to the same fundamental information Lazard is working with? In reality it will be up to the pro's at Lazard to bring the solution to the table. I noticed on their website they have posted condensed summaries of past deals - and about 95% are reorganizing debt and/or creating buyouts and mergers. About 5% were funnerals - where they organized CCAA or Bankruptcy.
So where does that leave us?
I've lightened my position - exercised some risk mgt - but I like the uptick close and the significant accumulation by house 72 (CSFB)..
One might figure we are in a high stakes game here - with some betting on ZERO and some betting on a MULTI-BAGGER.
I am cautiously with the latter - but can always bail at 15 cents and still come out ahead.
I would liked to have held my full position - but then again - I'll sleep well tonight - curious to see what tomorrow brings - AND THURS !
Thanks for the many insightfull posts.
Ya Gotta Luv It !
Coastal.