Here is an estimate/calculation about Vranino/bulgaria from CEO.CA. It is clear that it is currently difficult to estimate where the share price will be at the end of 2022/2023/2024 and so on, but one thing will happen 99.9%: Significantly higher than the current price, which may have a bottom for now at C$0.31. In the middle of July and at the end of July the shares from the March PP will be free. There could be another opportunity to further increase own holdings in Trillion Energy. At this point, however, the market is already looking ahead to the arrival of the rig and the start of drilling. It's going to be an interesting summer, with ups and downs, but it's all kindergarten before Trillion starts making massive money, which must then be reflected massively in the share price.
Here's his Vranino valuation:
@Fabruz @makingmoneynow agreed the Bulgarian upside is a lot and is actually massive. SASB is fairly well understood but Bulgaria not so much, and Art for good reason is focused on the Black Sea for now. Since there has not been a lot of attention given to the Bulgaria CBM asset, I did my own DD and developed a FCF model. I tested it with Art and he said "you are probably correct", except he felt my production values were low per day per well. Based on research into CBM, I came up with a model and NPV results:
It is not well appreciated and the market either doesn't apply value to it and/or doesn't know about it, and is a massive call option we get for free. I hope Art sells a 20% stake in it to finance the future Black sea exploration.