definitely worthwhile reading, tx goldminerfor sharing,
Conclusions caldera research
After reviewing Caldera comparables, and taking a second look at the Caldera -- Projected Fair Market metrics
against comparables, I believe that Caldera is considerably undervalued in the current market. Mining costs in the
Deno Gold operation, which hosts a deposit similar to the Marjan deposits and which is therefore a good proxy for
estimating future mining costs, strongly suggests a robust future preliminary economic study on Marjan, in my
view.
I believe the resolution of the Global Gold arbitration will be an important trigger for a market revaluation of
Caldera. I am not surprised that Global Gold is fighting to reclaim the Marjan project. Comparable metrics at Orko
Silver suggest Caldera is getting Marjan at an extremely attractive price. No doubt Global Gold has some seller
regrets over signing the deal. However, the fate of Marjan is now the subject of binding arbitration. Once that
process completes (believed to be by the end of August 2011), Caldera share price should recover. As of June 9,
2011, I believe the market is price for Caldera is based on a high probability Caldera will lose Marjan. On the
other hand, a postive arbitration outcome for Caldera should cause upside price surprise. Even if the arbitration
reduces Caldera's share of Marjan but retains the joint venture, Caldera is expected to appreciate in price. The
Marjan deposit will very likely bring considerable value to the company that is able to move the project closer to
production.
A secondary factor that the market may be discounting is the fact that Caldera has 0 oz of NI43-101 disclosure
compliant resources. The degree to which such fears might be at play in the market should diminish as Caldera
releases confirmation drill results and ultimately a NI43-101 compliant resource estimate. My expectation is that
the ultimate Marjan NI43-101 compliant resource estimate has significant potential to surprise on the upside.
At this point I have to conclude that the Caldera stock price gap between current and projected fair market stock
price significantly overemphasizes any risk. As a result, this valuation gap, in my opinion, gives investors today a
high probability of achieving an extraordinary return on investment at a much lower risk level than would normally
be associated with such an extraordinary return potential. That is, under normal market conditions, to double my
money, I should expect that there a significant probability of my losing all of my money. In the case of Caldera, I
have a chance to get 3, 5, or even 10 times my money with only a relatively low chance of losing 100%. This kind
of opportunity is somewhat unusual in the market. The last such opportunity I found was Rio Alto Mining which
returned up to a 10 times return