GREY:DGCRF - Post by User
Comment by
RetailRubeon Sep 09, 2012 9:10pm
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Post# 20340850
RE: What is next ?????
RE: What is next ????? Morose, are you asking for someone to write out for you what was said on the conference call on Thursday? Or are you saying you listened and judged it to be pathetic. If you want the former, you are in luck. It is available for replay on the Diagnocure website starting Monday Sept 10.
Personally, I took a deep breath and decided to wait to read the statutory disclosure first. I don't make investment decisions based on press releases. I also wrote to the company on Friday to express my views, ask some questions and make some suggestions. I will wait to hear from them too.
My initial impressions are as follows:
- Based on their current burn rate, if they get no more money from Signal Genetics and Progensa royalties don't change, and if they make no employee changes, they will run out of cash around April/2014.
- If I were on the Board of Directors and we sat there until 2014 doing nothing, I would worry about fiduciary responsibility issues. However, I would not be worried about being ousted by unhappy shareholders, since Diagnocure has "For or Withhold" voting. That means it takes only one share voting "For" a director to elect him.
- There won't be dilution in our future because nobody will ever give us more money. This is a problem for many tiny biotech companies in Canada right now. This is a risk-off investment climate and low-liquidity stocks are out of favour.
- The catalyst to move the stock price back above $1.00 is, of course, a takeover offer from Hologix-Genprobe for Progensa. Never say never. It could happen. Any day now.
- Progensa penetration I think may follow the PSA adoption curve like the one I found for Scotland. Scotland got 5% pentration after 1 year, 10% by end of year 2, then added 22% points of penetration in each of year 3, 4 and 5. Give the US penetration time to happen. European countries on the other hand have severe problems right now. Greek and Spanish governments are not reimbursing people for medicines covered by government health insurance, for example.
- What to do about Signal Genetics? That depends of what the buy/sell/royalty agreement says about default. I have not read it.
So, Morose, now that I have disclosed my analysis, what is your analysis?