Dundee Corp DNDPF

Blue Goose - Conservative NAV estimate

[valueinvestor89]

With the blue goose sale i update my personal NAV estimate. Would love to hear what you would change from this or what i'm missing. 

	Cash on Hand	90
	Blue goose net of corp debt	28
	Net proceeds from eight capital loan	13
	Public Securities adj to today's price	97
	Total safe assets	222
	Preffered shares = series 2 - assuming $23	-26.43
	Preffered shares = series 3 - assuming $23	-46.39
	Total net assets	149.18
	S/O	87.8
	Safe share price	1.70
	Extras
	Android	20	high technology car assembler in michigan…..decent profit and cash flows…issues with supply chain temporarily.
	Taurx	50	alsymers potential cure..in ph3…next results exp in summer 2022…could be worth 200 or 0
	debt securities	23	various…ussually 10% interest
	United hydrocarbon	10	carried at 24….long shot ..jr exploration company of oil and gas…gets a 20m bonus if they achive commercial production at DOBA Basin…30m on another…+ royalty…likely need oil above 70 for this to make sense..trading around 65-70..oil is trading at the highest in 5 years...
	Total Other ok  assets*	103
	Total Other ok  assets per share	1.17
	Safe + ok assets	2.87
	*own another 75m of other assets that are bad and unlikely to be recuped
	Current share price	1.54
	Upside	87%
	Downside price	1.37	Safe Assets + Security values drop 30%
	downside	-11%

[Catscratch]

Here are a few comments compared to my calculations: - I have a higher marketable securities value adjusted to today's prices @ $138M... I include Dundee Sustainable in that bucket. - Corporate and GCIC cash balance is $85M at June 30th.   - I'm using ~$70M carrying value as the Taurx fair value.  Based on the recent Taurx financings I think their carrying value could be

[valueinvestor89]

Thanks for the reply.  I'm curious where the $138m of securities is based on? you are definately right, i was missing DST but the current market cap is $16m which means that 80% would be worth $12m. Are you including debt securities in that number? if not any idea what would be the difference? i updated the top holdings to today's price  The tax losses is a great point but i

[Catscratch]

Just taking all of the "publicly traded securities" from the "Portfolio of Investments" table from the June 30th MD&A (including the "others" category which I believe is just the total of the smaller pubco holdings).  Plus Dundee Sustainable at market price. Plus the Warrants and Options on Public Enterprises. Plus the investment in CD Capital Natural

[FrozenInOntario]

You might want ot shave a couple of millions for the blue goose minority shareholders, Dundee owns 88%.  Your downside is really rock bottom. We will know pretty soon what they can extract from the other OK assets.   No value for Parq ?  Anyway, seems to me this is the bare minimum too. So we could have some upside to your upside.  Plus financial upside (share

[valueinvestor89]

Fully agree that there is financial upside and hope they make smart decisions here soon with either the prefs or common rather than continuing to reinvest in jr mining.  Good point on the NCI didn't, totally missed that.