ENB numbersENB YOY earnings report mixed. Q4 was actually very good (adjusted earnings $0.64 vs concensus $0.50) but the media will likely report that YoY adjusted earnings were down from $2.81 to $2.79
YoY cash flow from operations up $3 billion from $11.2 to $14.2 >>> good BUT distributable cash flow only up $300 million so basically only slightly better
Debt/EBITDA at 4.1x which is well below the range of 4.5 to 5.0 >>> not really a good thing as they have billions sitting on the sidelines waiting for the Dominion deal to close (expected to close in parts over 2024 and have zero effect on numbers)
Summary:
Earnings: Q4 good but down slightly YoY (meh as it is hard to move the needle these days)
Lots of CAPEX planned (not sure how to evaluate that as diversifying out of oil/liquids is good but the market hates anything oil related)
With Dominion acquistion, ENB will be 50% NG and renewables and 50% liquids (diversifying out of liquids and Canada are positive but ENB ultimately needs to find a buyer for its oil pipes)
2024 guidance maintained (good for us as ENS shareholders need ENB to keep producing cash)
Strategy:
I expect the ENB share price will be up a bit on the results given that the normal ex-divi runup has not happened yet. BUT, timing is everything. ENB goes ex-divi next Wednesday and that always comes with a warning of a potential RAISE for ENS. The Premium to the NAV is already close to a trigger point