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Flower One Holdings Inc FLOOF

Flower One Holdings Inc. is a Canada-based cannabis cultivation, production, licensing, and wholesale company. The Company produces a range of products from flower, full-spectrum oils, and distillates to finished consumer packaged goods, including pre-rolls, concentrates, edibles, topicals, and other brands in cannabis. It offers cannabis brands such as Cookies, Kiva, Old Pal, Heavy Hitters, Lift Ticket’s, HUXTON, and its in-house brand, NLVO, and more. The Company, through its subsidiaries, holds a range of investments such as commercial-scale cannabis greenhouse, cannabis production facility, indoor cultivation facility and a fully licensed commercial kitchen space, located in North Las Vegas, Nevada. Its subsidiaries include Flower One Corp., FO Labour Management Ltd., Cana Nevada Corp., CN Labor Management, Inc., CN License Co I, Inc., CN License Co III, Inc, North Las Vegas Equipment Co., Inc, North Las Vegas Equipment Co. III, Inc. and North Las Vegas Services, Inc.


GREY:FLOOF - Post by User

Comment by pacificfundon Nov 07, 2018 10:38pm
86 Views
Post# 28941481

RE:Eight Capital - Initiated Coverage Today

RE:Eight Capital - Initiated Coverage Today

Flower One Holdings Inc.

(FONE-T: C$1.73)

BUY

Target: C$3.00

FONE-CSE

Rating:
Target:
Return to Target Price:
F2020 EBITDA ($MM) Target multiple:

Company Data

Price (11/05/2018): 52-Week Range (H-L):

Shares Outstanding - Basic (MM): Shares Outstanding - Diluted (MM): Avg Daily Volume (3 Mos) (000s):

Fiscal Year End

* Eight Capital Estimate

Forecasts

Revenue ($MM)
Gross Margin (%)
Capacity online (000's sq ft): Adj. EBITDA ($MM)
OP CF ($MM)
Capex ($MM)

November 6, 2018 Graeme Kreindler, CPA, CA / (416) 350-5065

gkreindler@viiicapital.com

William Haynes / (647) 484-8275

whaynes@viiicapital.com

Patrick Sullivan, P.Eng, MBA / (647) 253-1170

psullivan@viiicapital.com

NV FONE Home: Initiating With a BUY

We are initiating coverage of Flower One Holdings ("FONE" or "the Company") with a BUY rating and a target price of C$3.00 based on a 6x multiple of 2020E EBITDA of $82 MM. Our target setting multiple is on the lower end of our coverage universe range of 8x - 12x due to FONE's early stage in construction and scale. Our target price implies 73% upside. FONE currently trades at 3.4x 2020E EBITDA vs. US peers at 12.4x and our Canadian coverage universe at 21.4x. All figures are in $USD unless noted otherwise.

Our BUY rating reflects our view that: A) FONE's 455,000 sq ft greenhouse facility is 12x larger than the average cultivation facility in the state of Nevada, to our knowledge, which will allow the Company to leverage economies of scale to supply high volumes of low cost product in a rapidly growing market; B) FONE will be able to leverage the SOPs and best practices of its Tier 1 greenhouse advisor to cultivate high quality and consistent product; and C) Nevada offers an attractive market to compete in with 42 MM visitors in 2017, a limit on retail licenses, no vertical integration requirements, limited restrictions on product types and flower heavy consumer consumption.

Upcoming Catalysts

US Midterm Elections November 6, 2018

Polling data suggest that it is likely the Democrats will win the House, while the Republicans will remain in control of the Senate. A Democrat-controlled House could see an overall lift in support for pro-cannabis legislation moving forward, potentially derisking the US cannabis industry.

Closing of NLVO Acquisition and Retail License Approval Q4 2018

Upon close, FONE will receive ownership of five operational licenses, a 25,000 sq ft indoor cultivation and production facility, access to genetics of over 50 strains of cannabis, retail reach in 30+ dispensaries and an established branded product line. FONE has applied for multiple retail dispensary licenses and has acquired real estate in North Las Vegas. Operating retail locations would allow FONE to secure a direct channel to market for its products, enhance vertical integration and increase its presence within the state.

Completion of 400,000 sq ft Greenhouse Facility Q1 2019

We expect the Company to begin cultivating shortly after construction is complete with a view toward first sales occurring in Q2 2019. Any delays to greenhouse construction could materially impact our estimates on revenues, profits and cash flows.

Completion of 55,000 sq ft Production and Packaging Facility Q2 2019

FONE expects to complete the construction of its 55,000 sq ft production and packaging facility in the second quarter of 2019. The projected timing aligns well with FONE's first harvest, allowing them to process material for sale in the wholesale market. Delay in the production facility could materially impact our estimates on cash flows from derivative products. 

US Midterm Elections November 6, 2018

Midterm elections will see each of the 435 House seats and 35 out of 100 Senate seats contested. The Republican Party currently maintains a majority in both houses. The midterm elections feature a number of ballot initiatives for medical and recreational legalization in states like Michigan, Missouri, North Dakota and Utah, which could open new market opportunities across the country. The midterms also have implications for politicians that are for/against cannabis legalization. For example, Republican Congressman Pete Sessions, the chairman of the House Rules Committee, has frequently used his position to block cannabis-related Bills from reaching the House floor. With 66% of the American public in favour of cannabis legalization, a shake-up in elected officials could result in further progress in pro-legalization legislation moving forward.

Closing of NLV Organics Acquisition Q4 2018

FONE expects to close its previously announced acquisition of NLV Organics, a Nevada-based cultivator and producer of cannabis products for the adult use market. Through the acquisition, FONE will obtain ownership of five licenses, a 25,000 sq ft indoor cultivation and production facility, access to genetics of over 50 strains of cannabis, retail reach in 30+ dispensaries and an established branded product line. FONE will pay total consideration of US$27 MM consisting of US$4 MM cash, a vendor note of US$14.6 MM and 4 MM common shares of FONE at a price of US$2 per share (C$2.60).

Approval of Retail Dispensary License Q4 2018

FONE has applied for multiple retail dispensary licenses and has acquired real estate in North Las Vegas for cash consideration of $1.15 MM to support its future retail presence. The Nevada Department of Taxation anticipates awarding licenses to successful applicants in December 2018. Operating retail locations would allow FONE to secure a direct channel to market for its products, enhance vertical integration and increase its presence within the state.

Brand Licensing and Supply Agreements Q4 2018

FONE expects to enter into various brand licensing agreements with popular brands from other markets and states. Brands are expected to include premium through to value brands across all product categories including flower, oils, concentrates and other derivatives. FONE also expects to enter into supply agreements with state licensed dispensaries and with state licensed third party processors.

Approval of OTCQB Listing Q4 2018
FONE expects to receive approval to list on the OTCQB to increase the liquidity of the stock and gain exposure to a

broader array of investors.

Completion of 400,000 sq ft Greenhouse Facility Q1 2019

The retrofit of 400,000 sq ft of greenhouse space will allow the Company to begin a single-phase, complete onboarding of plants and the cultivation cycle. We expect the Company to begin cultivating shortly after construction is complete with a view toward first sales occurring in Q2 2019.

Completion of 55,000 sq ft Production and Packaging Facility Q2 2019

FONE expects to complete the construction of its 55,000 sq ft production and packaging facility in the second quarter of 2019. This timing should align well with the first harvest from its cultivation facility so FONE can begin processing material for sale in the wholesale and retail market.

VALUATION & FORECASTS

We are BUY rated on FONE with a target price of C$3.00 based on 6x our 2020E EBITDA of $82 MM. FONE currently trades at 3.4x CY2020E EBITDA vs. US peers at 12.4x 2020E EBITDA and our Canadian coverage universe average at 21.4x. Our target setting multiple is on the lower end of our coverage universe range of 8x - 12x due to FONE's early stage in terms of construction and scale. We apply an EBITDA multiple for our valuation methodology in order to highlight the expected profits set to be generated from the leveraging of economies of scale in low cost greenhouse production. Our valuation year is set at 2020, as it provides a medium-term horizon for FONE to establish its key operations in Nevada while also allowing for growth from the pending acquisition.

Our forecasts do not factor in revenue derived from NLVO, as the transaction has not yet closed. We do not yet include any retail revenues in our projections, as FONE is in the process of securing a retail license. Our 2020 revenue considers production output of 88,000 lbs, 30% Triple A at $2,000/lb, 25% trim at $500/lb, 30% small bud at $900/lb and 15% extracts at $9,000/lb.

Nevada currently has a favourable pricing environment for wholesalers. According to the Nevada Department of Taxation, wholesale pricing in Nevada has increased 30% during the first year of recreational legalization. The increase in price has been due to stronger than anticipated demand in the state and a lack of supply caused by high failure rates among crops when tested for microbials. Our price forecasts are conservative versus current market conditions in light of the fact that Nevada does not have a cap on the number of cultivation licenses available. We expect this will result in an increase in supply and decrease in the overall price, over time. 

We expect FONE's gross margin to increase from 48% to 54% and EBITDA margins to increase from 27% to 37% by 2020 as the Company achieves scale at its greenhouse facility. Estimated cash costs per gram decrease from $1.50 to $0.95 by 2020. 
 

Valuation

$USD unless otherwise noted

2020E EBITDA $82

Multiple 6.0x

Enterprise Value $491

Cash $28
Cash from W/O $0
Debt $18

Equity Value $502

Shares Outstanding (MM) 176.2
W/O Outstanding 12.3
Financings 32.7

Fully Diluted Shares (MM) 221.2

Target Price $2 USD/CAD 1.31
Target Price ($C) $3.00
Last Price ($C) $1.73
Return to Target 73% 


Source: Factset, Company reports, Eight Capital estimates
Note: FD share count for valuation purposes assumed future equity financing
Capital Structure

FONE's capital structure consists of a single class of common shares. Principal shareholders include Southlands Family Trust and Yaletown Family Trust, each owning 36,000,000 shares (combined 39%). Directors and officers own a combined 5,438,138 shares of the company (3%).

Certain shareholders who hold 97,719,900 shares have entered into a pooling agreement in which 25% of the shares were released on the beginning of trading (October 10, 2018) and 25% will be released every 6 months from that date. All of the Company’s directors, officers and shareholders holding more than 5% have agreed to a six month escrow (77,247,316 shares). Total number of free trading shares as of the public listing was 78.9 MM. In six months' time 44.4 MM more shares are eligible to be released. 
 

Figure 3: Flower One Capital Structure 
 

Share Class

Amount (000's)

Common Shares Outstanding 176,192

Dilutive Securities ITM 12,290

Fully Diluted Shares 188,482

Note: includes shares to be issued for NLVO acquisition 

Source: Company reports, Eight Capital 
 

COMPANY OVERVIEW

Flower One Holdings is a Canadian-based cannabis company with operating assets exclusively located in Nevada. It was incorporated in British Columbia on January 9, 2007 under the name Theia Resources Ltd. The Company changed its name to Flower One Holdings upon the amalgamation on September 21, 2018. FONE has two licenses for the cultivation and production of medical cannabis and two licenses for the cultivation and production of recreational cannabis in the State of Nevada. Through the pending acquisition of NLV Organics, FONE expects to obtain five additional licenses: two cultivation (medical & recreational), two production (medical & recreational) and a pending distribution license.

In March 2018, the Company acquired a 430,000 sq ft greenhouse and began a retrofit project, converting the property into a 400,000 sq ft hydroponic cultivation facility and creating a 55,000 sq ft post-harvest, production and packaging area. As of October 24, more than 16,000 hours of construction work had been completed on the facility, representing 40% completion, with a targeted completion of the greenhouse in Q1 2019 and of the post-harvest, production and packaging area in Q2 2019.

Upon closing of FONE's acquisition of NLVO's assets, the Company's total cultivation capacity, production capacity and license portfolio will be as follows: 

Figure 4: FONE Overview 

Product        Cultivation          Plants per          Production         No. of
  Type              (sq ft)           Harvest Cycle            (sq ft)           Licenses

Greenhouse   400,000              80,000                 55,000                 4
NLVO              20,000                4,500                   5,000                  5

Total              420,000              84,500                 60,000                 9 

Source: Company reports, Eight Capital 
 

Leveraging Best Practices of an Industry-Leading Greenhouse Operator

The Flower One greenhouse facility will comprise of a team of executives and senior management with a deep and proven track record in large-scale commercial greenhouse design, build and operations. Depth of expertise will include implementing proprietary SOPS, intellectual property and other best practices to achieve low cost and high-quality cultivation and processing of cannabis. FONE's advisory team consists of Steven Newell, John Newell and Anthony Martin. All three individuals are executives of one of North America's largest sustainable suppliers of naturally grown produce. Steven and John each have over 30 years of farming experience and 25 years of experience in high-tech greenhouse operations.

This group brings an award winning reputation and experience operating large-scale, state-of-the-art greenhouse facilities in British Columbia, California and Nevada. On a combined basis, their assets represent 11 MM sq ft of greenhouse capable of producing over 350 MM lbs of fresh produce annually. Their business expects to generate in excess of $400 MM from its greenhouse produce business.

The operation of their greenhouses is driven by its team of master, senior, and assistant growers and implementation of a rigorous integrated pest management (IPM) program. IPM is an ecosystem-based strategy which aims to control pests by carefully managing the greenhouse ecosystem and considering all available pest control techniques. An IPM program encompasses biological, cultural, mechanical, physical and chemical controls which spans everything from worker hygiene to careful selection of pesticide.

Four Pronged Approach to FONE's Business Strategy
1)
Direct Selling to Nevada Dispensaries FONE will sell wholesale and branded products and those of its third-party

partners directly to more than 60 dispensaries (expected to reach 130+ dispensaries in 2019).

2) Wholesale Sales of unbranded, wholesale products in the form of trim, oil, distillate and dry flower to other Nevada operators seeking to repackage under their own brands.

3) Contract Cultivation, Production and Packaging Unparalleled scale and cost leadership will be leveraged to support leading brands and product lines that lack in-state cultivation and processing capabilities.

4) Supplying FONE-Owned Retail The Company has submitted applications for retail licenses in Nevada and plans to explore and assess future acquisition opportunities in order to secure a dispensary license.

COMPANY HISTORY

Flower One Holdings was incorporated in British Columbia on January 9, 2007 under the name Theia Resources Ltd. The Company changed its name to Flower One Holdings upon the amalgamation on September 21, 2018. On January 1, 2018 FONE appointed Ken Villazor as President. One of the Company's subsidiaries, Cana Nevada Corp., entered into a lease and purchase option agreement to acquire a 430,000 sq ft. greenhouse facility in North Las Vegas on March 13, 2018. The deal was closed on August 31, 2018 for a price of $22 M in option payments and an $18M promissory note due March 3, On April 23, 2018, the Company closed a non-brokered private placement raising proceeds of $26.7 MM (C$34.7 MM).

On July 1, the Company received approval of its medical cultivation and production licenses from the state of Nevada, followed by approvals for its business licenses from the City of North Las Vegas on August 16.

On June 19, 2018, the Company submitted applications for recreational cultivation and production licenses which were approved on September 14, 2018.

On September 20, FONE completed a brokered private placement of 28,701,847 sub receipts at a price of $1.50 (C$2.00) per share for gross proceeds of $43 MM (C$57.4 MM).

Concurrent to the private placement, FONE completed an amalgamation with Theia Resources Ltd. and listed its shares on the Canadian Securities Exchange.

On October 9, FONE announced it had entered into an agreement to acquire NLV Organics, a Nevada-based cultivator and producer of cannabis products. The acquisition would provide FONE access to five operating licenses, 20,000 sq ft of indoor cultivation capacity and 5,000 sq ft of production space. Specifically, FONE expects to obtain two cultivation licenses (medical & recreational), two production licenses (medical & recreational) and a pending distribution license. The acquisition will also provide immediate access to genetics of over 50 strains of cannabis, sales relationships with 30 dispensaries, and an established product line of packaged flower, pre-rolls, vape cartridges, concentrates and topicals. The immediate access to genetic strains would expedite planting at the larger greenhouse facility by supplying initial cuttings to the facility. The transaction is expected to close Q4 2018 for a total consideration of US$27 MM, consisting of cash of US$4,635,650, a vendor note of US$14,564,350 and 4 MM common shares of FONE at a price of US$2.00 per share.

On October 23, FONE announced it had purchased property in North Las Vegas to support its future retail presence, paying $1.15 MM cash in total consideration.

FACILITIES OVERVIEW

Cultivation and production at significant scale is FONE's largest competitive advantage. When examining the cultivation and production footprint of well-known operators in Nevada, a striking difference is seen with respect to FONE's expected footprint and annual yield. To our knowledge, FONE is over 6.5x larger than the second largest operator in the state. 
 

The facility is strategically located within close proximity to tourist-driven Las Vegas and within a short drive from NLV Organics.

North Las Vegas Greenhouse - Unmatched Size and Scale

FONE's flagship facility is a 430,000 sq ft greenhouse formerly operated as a vegetable greenhouse. Located in North Las Vegas, Nevada, the greenhouse is undergoing construction to create 400,000 sq. ft of hydroponic cannabis cultivation space. Design and conversion of the greenhouse has been contracted to a leading Food and Beverage design firm. Having this firm oversee the retrofit of the greenhouse significantly lowers the execution risk of the project, in our view.

The greenhouse is expected to be completed and fully planted in Q1 2019. Planting in the facility will begin late Q1 2019 and will be fully operational in early 2019. Once fully operational, the facility is expected to yield 63,500 kg (140,000 lbs) of product annually.

Flowering will take place in eight independently controlled zones, each outfitted with environmental sensors providing growers with real-time feedback on the climate condition. The high level of instrumentation allows for the precise environmental control of each zone's humidity, temperature, vapor pressure, and light level. The greenhouse systems include pipe rail heating, grow pipe heating, horizontal air flow fans, natural venting, bug screens, heat and light screening systems, and computer-controlled drip irrigation. The greenhouse will also have liquid cooled LED hydroponic lighting, odor control, de-humidification, high pressure fogging and active chilling. The facility is expected to include systems which automate drying, trimming and grading of products. 
 

North Las Vegas Production Facility

A 55,000 sq ft production and packaging facility is expected to be completed in Q2 2019 and has been designed for annual processing capacity of 420,000 lbs with the ability to annually produce 20,000 litres of distillate, 50,000 litres of concentrate, 60,000 lbs of wax, 12 MM auto-fill packages and 61 MM pre-rolls. The facility will utilize C02, ethanol and butane extraction processes in the manufacturing of derivative products.

NLV Organics Inc.

NLV Organics Indoor Cultivation and Production Facility

NLV Organics (NLVO) operates 20,000 sq ft of indoor cultivation space consisting of nine separate grow rooms capable of cultivating 4,500 plants per cycle. At the same location, NLV Organics operates 5,000 sq ft of production space where it processes and packages products for the adult-use market.

Synergies from the NLVO acquisition will include the sharing of genetics across the two facilities, beta testing of selected post-harvest greenhouse equipment, supply of plant cutting to fully canopy the greenhouse with 80,000 plants, domain knowledge in post-harvest production, extraction, topicals, product development and packaging. NLVO also provides access to genetics of over 50 strains of cannabis and sales relationships with 30+ dispensaries in the State of Nevada.

BRANDS & PRODUCTS OVERVIEW

FONE Products

FONE expects to produce bulk flower and trim, jars and pouches of flower, pre-rolls, CBD oil, Rick Simpson oil, vape pens, shatter, dab, live resin, topicals, edibles, soft gel caps and drink mixes. The Company expects to produce products for its own brands as well as white label manufacturing for leading brands and product lines that lack in-state infrastructure.

NLV Organics Inc.

NLVO cultivates and processes a wide range of products for the adult-use market aimed at addressing the premium consumer. NLVO cannabis is grown in a state-of-the-art indoor facility under strict environmental control conditions. NLV Organic products are sold in numerous formats, including packaged flower, pre-rolls, vape cartridges, concentrates and topicals. 
 

NEVADA MARKET OVERVIEW

We view Nevada as one of the most attractive recreational cannabis markets in the US with an estimated mature market size of US$580 MM (med + rec) on a population weighted basis. We favour companies focused on capturing market share in high traffic areas such as the Las Vegas strip, as well as those that can achieve increasing scale and low cost in cultivation. We expect that competition in the state will increase over time, making key real estate and economies of scale essential for long-term success.

Nevada offers an attractive market landscape with approximately 3 MM residents, 75% of which are located in Clark County. Nevada also benefits from world renowned entertainment and nightlife which drew 42 MM visitors in 2017. Other attractive factors include having both medical and recreational markets legalized, a limit on the number of retail licenses allowed in the state, no requirements for vertical integration, and limited restrictions on product types.

Nevada state residents voted to approve medical marijuana through a ballot initiative in 2000. The Nevada Medical Marijuana Act passed with 65% support on November 7, 2000, but sales did not begin until July 31, 2015 because the law did not contain adequate language to establish a system to sell or distribute products. Prior to 2015, anyone with a medical marijuana prescription had to grow their own crops. Following this, the state approved a legal adult-use market through a 2016 ballot initiative and retailers began selling to the recreational market on July 1, 2017. The Department of Taxation is responsible for licensing and regulating the state's medical and recreational program. In 2017, it instituted an Early Start Program where existing medical marijuana establishments could apply for retail licenses, giving medical retail businesses a significant first mover advantage on the recreational market.

The total statewide retail license cap is set at 132, a number determined by population density in each county, and stipulates the number of available licenses per county. As of August 16, there were 64 licenses remaining to be allocated across different counties, most notably, 31 remaining in Clark County which includes the city of Las Vegas. The state does not stipulate a cap on cultivation licenses. There have been a reported 121 cultivation licenses awarded to date.

Since the onset of the adult-use regime, registered medical marijuana patient numbers have been declining in the state, reported at 21,579 back on March 2018, down from 26,500 in early 2017.

After the first fiscal year of the adult-use market, revenue and tax revenue outpaced projections by 140%. Total medical and recreational sales reached $529.9 MM, with adult-use sales accounting for $424.9 MM. As seen in Figure 8, monthly sales varied between $40 MM and $50 MM for the year, according to data provided by the Nevada Department of Taxation. 
 

Flower Dominated Market . . . For Now

Sales data shows that flower dominates as a product category accounting for 50% of all sales. We see this as a positive for FONE, as it will be the largest producer of flower in the state. In more mature markets such as California, the popularity of concentrate products is rising as vapes and vape oils become a preferred consumption method. It is not unrealistic to expect a similar pattern in Nevada in the future, where concentrates become a larger share of the market. FONE's 55,000 sq ft production facility, to our knowledge, is the largest among producers in the state, and will position it well to supply the market with concentrates and other derivative products as the market dynamics begin to shift. 
 

Excess Demand and Lack of Supply has Created a Market Favouring Wholesalers

Counter to trends seen in other markets, wholesale cannabis prices in Nevada have increased over the last year. Flower wholesale prices have increased 30%, while trim is up 26%. This trend has been due to demand from the rec market exceeding anticipated levels, as well as supply shortages caused by strict testing criteria, rendering many crops unsellable unless they have been processed. Cultivation facilities that are not equipped to handle heat and humidity are seeing their crops fail microbial testing requirements set out by the state. Cultivators whose crops are able to meet the testing criteria are able to command higher prices as a result. We feel this market dynamic has the potential to be a large advantage for FONE once its facility is operational. We believe the operation team's prior experience in hot and humid environments, combined with the greenhouse's advanced technology for micro-climate and pest management will prove advantageous for  FONE. We expect FONE will be able to produce crops that pass state testing requirements based on its robust greenhouse operational expertise. 
 

Recreation Lounges May Lift Sales Attributed to Tourism

State law limits consumption to private residences, barring all public spaces, including parks, schools and community centres. Gaming regulators and casino owners have positioned themselves against cannabis, banning its use on resort property in order to protect themselves from penalties by gaming authorities. Las Vegas officials are working to open the state's first marijuana consumption lounges by the end of the year. Officials are looking to implement hookah-style lounges for legal consumption by adults in a municipal Bill which was heard by a recommending committee in early October. If support for the Bill is garnered, the city would expect to start taking applications for lounges in November. This action would greatly facilitate access to legal cannabis for the approximately 40 MM tourists that visit the state each year, and could provide a lift for the market by increasing access to consumption points, driving higher demand for end products.

COMPANY LEADERSHIP

Management Team

Ken Villazor, Director, President & CEO - Mr. Villazor has a resume which includes numerous senior positions in the pharmaceutical industry working for companies such as SmithKline Beecham, GlaxoSmithKline and Biovail Corporation. His work in pharmaceuticals saw him exposed to government regulated aspects of commercial operations, including formulary/market access, pricing compliance, price controls, manufacturing grants, regulatory approvals and shaping government policies. Ken also possesses board experience having served on Organic Garage Ltd. (OG; Not Covered) since 2016 on its Audit, Governance and Compensation Committees. Ken's experience is not limited to the pharmaceutical industry, as he also spent over a decade in sports and entertainment as an Alternate Governor and advisor to the Ottawa Senators franchise of the National Hockey League.

Geoff Miachika, CFO - Mr. Miachika is a Chartered Professional Accountant who most recently held the position of Senior Manager at KPMG, where he worked for 10 years. His time at the firm provided exposure to audit, accounting advisory, securities engagements, mergers, acquisitions and dispositions.

Jean St. Martin, Corporate Secretary - Ms. St. Martin has over 19 years of experience practicing law, 11 years at her first firm where she reached the level of Partner followed by 6 years as a sole practitioner. Most recently, she has taken the role of Partner at another firm, Adamski, Moroski, Madden, Cumberland and Green. Her professional focus spans real estate and land use, environmental law, corporate and business law. Ms. St. Martin also possesses board experience having served as counsel to the boards of directors of several private US companies.

Amit Varma, Director - Mr. Varma has over 17 years of experience spanning corporate finance and banking, having worked with some of the largest financial institutions in Canada, as well as some of Canada's largest agriculture companies. Mr. Varma possesses corporate and client relationship development experience, having been responsible for sourcing, developing and maintaining relationships with strategic financial partners as it related to capital sourcing. Mr. Varma carries a resume that boasts delivering several billion dollars in different financing structures to companies in the public and private sectors.

David Wesley, Director - Mr. Wesley has extensive experience in commercial greenhouse operations, having delivered over $400MM of agriculture, office, industrial and other green field construction. Mr. Wesley also has extensive multi- national experience leading development efforts and regulatory compliance spanning local and federal agencies.

Warner Fong, Director - Mr. Fong is a certified professional accountant with over 25 years of experience in accounting and administration. For the past 14 years, he has devoted his career to senior management roles in the greenhouse industry, responsible for all reporting requirements, capital budgeting, cash flow management and developing internal control processes for new reporting entities.

Advisory Team

Steven Newell - Steven Newell has 30 years of agricultural experience, including the last 20 years working in all areas of large-scale commercial greenhouse operations. He has extensive experience in site selection, designing, permitting, planning and building commercial greenhouses and related processing and packaging facilities. He has developed strong relationships globally, including with international suppliers of technology and equipment. Steven attended Queens University School of Business.

John Newell - John Newell has 30 years of agricultural experience, including the last 20 years working in all areas of large-scale commercial greenhouse operations. His strong background spans all areas of sales and marketing, general management of greenhouse operations, developing and fostering third party grower relationships, and sourcing of bought in product. John majored in microbiology at University of British Columbia.

Anthony Martin - Mr. Martin has over 35 years of financial management experience in commercial greenhouse operations as a Chief Financial Officer since 2008. He was previously the CFO, COO and President of one of Canada’s Top 100 TSX listed issuers, and formerly the President and COO of the largest service provider of banking solutions to financial institutions and ATM networks. He has extensive knowledge of Canadian and U.S. taxation, accounting, financial reporting, capital markets, debt markets, corporate governance and operations. Mr. Martin holds a B.Com (Magna cumLaude) and Graduate Diploma in Accounting from Concordia University. He is a member of both the Canadian Institute of Certified Public Accountants – Chartered Accountants and the Quebec Order of Certified Public Accountants – Chartered Accountants. 
 

RISKS

Federal interference with lawful state businesses - Cannabis remains a controlled substance and illegal at the federal level. Appropriation Bills passed by the United States Congress limit the use of federal funds for prosecution of state legal medical cannabis businesses, but not adult-use entities. In addition, these appropriations are temporary in nature and must be renewed each year, with no guarantee that they will be renewed. In the event that Appropriation Bills are not renewed and/or the federal or state justice departments make the decision to take legal action against cannabis business operators, individuals or businesses could be prosecuted for violations of federal law despite being in compliance with state law. Violations of federal law could result in fines, penalties, sanctions and/or convictions which could adversely affect a business or result in it shutting down. Enforcement approaches/priorities and political attitudes are also subject to rapid change, as evidenced by the rescission of the Cole memo. While probability of the prosecution of state compliant cannabis businesses currently appears to be low, it is impossible to predict whether or not federal law enforcement and law makers will change their outlooks moving forward.

Access to capital and liquidity - Federal law governing banking activity and securities exchanges makes access to traditional debt and equity markets a challenge. While private debt is available, it often carries a high cost of borrowing. Public equity markets in Canada have been available to date; however, shifts in the market on a micro or macro level could reduce investor appetite for high growth investments, subsequently reducing access to equity capital markets. Without access to growth capital, US cannabis businesses will have a difficult time in fueling growth and strategic initiatives, and in some cases, day-to-day operations. Additionally, US cannabis companies with shares listed on the CSE rely on the Canadian Depository for Securities Limited (CDS) to clear and settle trades. While the TMX Group, which owns the CDS, has signed an MOU with the CSE regarding regulatory oversight and review of cannabis related issuers, there can be no guarantee that the CDS's stance will change in the future. If the CDS ceased to clear and settle trades for issuers with US cannabis operations, it would have a material adverse effect on the ability of shareholders to clear and settle trades, and would result in the securities of US cannabis issuers becoming highly illiquid until a suitable alternative is implemented.

Heightened scrutiny - Due to the operating environment, US cannabis businesses often face heightened scrutiny from banking, tax, securities and licensing authorities/regulators. The increased cost of compliance can place an additional financial burden on firms, affecting their profitability. Failure to comply with laws/regulations could also have adverse effects on the financial results and ability for the business to carry on its regular operations. In addition, a sudden change in laws or policies from a securities, tax, and legal, etc. perspective could materially alter the ability for the business to operate in an efficient manner. Scrutiny also extends to third party services providers, which could decide to cease having a relationship with a cannabis business which could further affect revenues, expenses and financial health of a company.

Increased competition - Some states have limited licensing, while others have no caps on the number of licenses awarded. Increased access to capital also increases the number of market players competing for limited market share. As time goes on, the level of competition in a state may increase, making it harder for a company to retain its current level of market share.

Licensing - US cannabis businesses are subject to a number of state and local level licenses to manufacture, process, package, distribute, transport and sell cannabis and its related products. Licenses often require renewal with the period of time between renewals varying. Failure to obtain and/or renew the necessary licenses could materially affect a Company's ability to operate in its preferred operating environment.

Consumer adoption - Legal cannabis markets compete with the existing illicit market. We believe that consumers will eventually shift to the legal market; however, there are no guarantees. With no established legal marketplace or operating history, uncertainty remains over consumer adoption of the legal market, and with that, the various products, brands and SKUs that consumers will ultimately prefer. If an operator does not effectively cater to consumer needs, it could materially impact the estimated market share we believe it can achieve, impacting its overall profitability. Cannabis businesses are also reliant on increasing consumer adoption from the general public that may have never consumed cannabis before. If social attitudes toward cannabis shift toward one of abstinence, it could have a material adverse effect on a company's growth prospects.

Scaling - The effective use of capital in scaling up cultivation, distribution, processing or retail operations is a key element in driving returns on capital for shareholders. The on-time and on-budget build out of facilities is key to building operations and increasing market share. Failure to effectively scale could materially impact a company's profitability and competitiveness in a nascent marketplace.

Product quality - State law largely outlines strict rules for quality assessment and control, cleanliness, manufacturing, pesticide use, etc. and tests are routinely carried out. Failure to adhere to these standards could result in product recalls, product liability, loss of reputation and increased costs to produce. 

Pricing and cost - Pricing in the US market can be extremely volatile, depending on the demand and number of cultivators in the state. The ability to effectively control costs and maximize revenue per unit sold is a key element in achieving profitability over time.

Taxation - 280E regulations can result in effective tax rates over 50%, which has a material adverse impact on the profitability of a company. There is no certainty as to whether or not the tax regulations will change, for better or for worse, in the near future.

Distribution and logistics - Having the proper scale on both brick-and-mortar and online retail outlets, along with the wholesale and logistical infrastructure to support them, will be key in creating a retail network that facilitates sales and ultimately profits for US cannabis businesses. A lack of scale or disruption of a retail/distribution network could have large implications for sales volumes.

Biological assets - Cannabis is a biological asset that can be prone to pests, disease and other means of crop failure. Preventing and/or mitigating pests and disease and promoting a clean and healthy growing environment for crops have significant impacts on plant yields, production costs and producer margins. As a result of entities rapidly scaling and adapting to newly constructed facilities and grow environments, the risk of biological asset loss has the potential to increase, which can negatively affect costs, product quality and profitability. 

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    Eight Capital and/or its affiliated companies have provided investment banking services to Flower One Holdings Inc. in the past 12 months.

    Explanation of Recommendations
    Eight Capital target: Represents the price target as required under IIROC Rule 3400. Valuation methodologies used in determining the price target(s) for the issuer(s) mentioned in this research report are contained in current and/or prior research. Eight Capital target N/A: a price target and/or NAV are not available if the analyst deems there are limited financial metrics upon which to base a reasonable valuation.

    Recommendations: BUY: Total returns expected to be materially better than the overall market with higher return expectations needed for more risky securities. NEUTRAL: Total returns expected to be in line with the overall market. SELL: Total returns expected to be materially lower than the overall market. TENDER: The analyst recommends tendering shares to a formal tender offer. UNDER REVIEW: The analyst will place the rating and/or target price Under Review when there is a significant material event with further information pending; and/or when the analyst determines it is necessary to await adequate information that could potentially lead to a re-evaluation of the rating, target price or forecast; and/or when coverage of a particular security is transferred from one analyst to another to give the new analyst time to reconfirm the rating, target price or forecast.

    SECURITY ABBREVIATIONS: NVS (non-voting shares); RVS (restricted voting shares); RS (restricted shares); SVS (subordinate voting shares). 

 



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