GREY:GPLDF - Post by User
Comment by
ganndolph1on Aug 04, 2020 6:20pm
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Post# 31364037
RE:Earnings estimates
RE:Earnings estimatesfirecracker74,
The high end of analyst estimates for Q2 profit is 2 cents per share, and the lower analyst estimate is zero. Your revenue number for Tucano of $68 million USD is reasonable. My assumption is average gold price of $1800 USD/oz, so my revenue number for Tucano is $64 million USD.
However, based on the production numbers from Guanajuato, IMHO that mine generates a profit of $0.9 million USD on revenues of $2.7 million, while Topia should generate a small profit of 0.43 million USD on revenue of $2.3 million USD. Those numbers come from scaling throughput reduction proportionally with total production. You are correct that the unknown factor is what were the additional costs associated with the lockdown?
But my bottom line is a revenue of $71 million USD and after tax profit of $16.5 million USD per share or 5 cents per share.
The real story here is the explosion in the silver price. So what happens in Q3 with silver sitting at $25 USD, and I think that is a conservative number, and gold is fat and happy at $2200 USD?
Guanajuato profit explodes to $11.0 million USD, and Topia generates a profit of $3.8 million USD, while Tucano hits it out of the park with a profit of $56 million USD. After tax profit increases to $45.8 million USD or 14.7 cents per share--triple the profit of the prior quarter.
And all tha is without Coricancha going into production. It would be stupid if Coricancha does not go into production within the next 90 days with the current rise in gold and silver prices. If we get a quick production decision from management, then look for an additional 5 cents per share in profit for Q3 2020.
IMHO, the analyst numbers on Great Panther are too conservative. Those who think this is a single operation stock are mistaken.