RE:RE:RE:RE:Codswallop! Ofc spinco will have a value. What this value is we cannot really know, as it might be said to be both real and imaginary. I think along these lines:
1) 10 cents.
Spinco value is initially the value of whatever volume of currency put into the company. The only documents I have been able to find says that amounts to $1.5M. So just over 10 cents each. Whatever value Spinco will have in the future should not affect the current evaluation of GBR more than 10 cents.
2) 10% of current GBR stock price.
Spinco is valued on dreams about not having to do anything but to receive a monthly allowance in the future, an allowance that will keep you firmly attached to Dixie for its entire life span at a comfortable 2% rate divided by Spinco share amount. The thing is that after Dixie is sold, the feeder tube is still firmly attached to Dixie through the NSR programme. So those that hold Spinco stock will benefit for a long time, which is the whole idea of the spinout.Personally I think of this stock as something I might be able to pass on to my nephews. And do not forget that the new owner/s might find a lot more gold on the property, and Spinco get 2% from that too. Spinco is a stock that is set up for a marathon run, slow and steady over a long distance. Perhaps decades, even.
If Spinco is valued on dreams alone, then GBR stock will drop more than 10 cents. My best guess in that scenario is something along the lines of perhaps 10%. However, I believe such a drop will soon be corrected and I am not keen on trying to ”trade”, simply because I am a very bad day trader and I learned my lesson.
3) 2% of GBR stock price.
One could also reason like this; Spinco will hold a 2% NSR, and 2% of GBR stock is (2% x 9.69) 0.1938 which means that GBR stock should drop to (9.69 – 0.1938) approx 9.50.
There's more than one way to skin a cat, ofc.
I am sure that Spinco has value, that is why I stick to my GBR stock over the transision phase. I want that stock on my account. Just how much value to put on it? My guess is as good as yours. I just hope that all of us here did the right move and all benefit from whatever action we take. To sum it up, I am an alternative 2 guy.