Katanga Mining Ltd Ord KATFF

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Some Initial Analysis

[Dragone64]

I'm pretty pragmatic about this. In 2020 Katanga will be one of the largest copper producers and probably the most important cobalt producer in the world. This is not a small mine somewhere in Africa but already a company with 5000 employees. Glencore was and is one of the world's leading commodities company and has some pretty smart heads at its top. Unfortunately, they operate in a country which has always included a risk premium that kept the SP at a low level. Should the political situation in the Congo consolidate and the cooperation with the government relax, this mine will spit out quite a lot of money. In other words, with full production, quarterly figures should improve significantly alreday by 2019. So let's assume that Katanga will make 20 or 30 cents per share in 2020 instead of a few cents of loss. I think an SP of Can$1 to 1.50 is the absolute minimum we can expect. It's more likely to be $2 to $3. For me this means: I have a position and I will build it up especially on weaker days. With strong exaggerations upwards it can also happen that I sell a few pieces to buy them back later at lower prices. It is clear that if you buy today and wait 2 or 3 or more years, the probability to lose money here is rather low. But the probability to make 100 or 200 or 500% profit is very realistic. In this sense, anyone who sells at these levels is probably not very smart. As always this is only my modest view. From my gut feeling I think we will see 65 cents next week.....and DYOR....as always.