Katanga Mining Ltd Ord KATFF

Some Initial Analysis

[topdop]

On further review, this morning's selloff is overdone. To put things into perspective, the recent Q3 Production report confirmed that: "Total cobalt contained in hydroxide increased to 3,512 tonnes in Q3 2018 from 2,429 tonnes in Q2 2018".

However, today's PR states that: "Total cobalt production impacted by the sale suspension amounts to 1,472 tons of finished cobalt".

That means Q3 WILL STILL SEE SOME COBALT SALES, namely 2,040 tonnes (being 3,512 - 1,472) and roughly 25% less than in the prior quarter, Q2.

Given total copper cathode produced increased nicely to 39,296 tonnes in Q3 from 35,615 tonnes in Q2, the financial shock of the Cobalt Sale Suspension might be smaller than the Share selloff suggests.

These are my views only. Thanks for reading

[InternalAudit68]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[topdop]

Just replying to your comment from some time back @InternalAudit68 As it happens, I was lucky enough to sell half my Aphria at +$21 a while ago (and the 2nd time I did so...), with the rest sold +$16 a while later. I also sold all my MedMen just under $6 to move into a shed load of MedMen warrants which then more than doubled. Sold the last of those a few weeks ago at $2.17 adding 200k shares to

[InternalAudit68]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[topdop]

Notwithstanding anymore seismic, unforseen events and underlined by the demonstrable, enescapable transitioning we now see out of virtually EVERY DEVELOPED NATION and EVERY TIER 1 AUTO MANUFACTURER over to policies and platforms of some EV propulsion* type or the other, I will NOT BE SELLING ANYTHING. For these reasons, I am quite confident we will see a FIVE in front of this business by the time

[InternalAudit68]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[Lech1988]

You seem to have a short memory...we were trading $2.50+ at the beginning of this year even before the ramp up. I agree with topdog a $5-$6 handle seems reasonable by 2020 assuming the macro situation doesn't implode.

[Dragone64]

I'm pretty pragmatic about this. In 2020 Katanga will be one of the largest copper producers and probably the most important cobalt producer in the world. This is not a small mine somewhere in Africa but already a company with 5000 employees. Glencore was and is one of the world's leading commodities company and has some pretty smart heads at its top. Unfortunately, they operate in a

[Lech1988]

Crunching some conservative numbers 20-30c EPS is a very low estimate.

[InternalAudit68]

This post has been removed in accordance with Community Policy

[topdop]

For a reminder, my current KAT position is 716,670 shares at an ASP of $0.79 for a cost of $569,521.00 And yes, I've made 66 trades. Governed by my "notwithstanding" statement yesterday on this BB, I'm now really inclined to let this one run its course... Trading it is not fun and was never my goal with KAT; (repeated) unfortunate circumstance caused that. My goal is to let this

[johnny54]

My current kat position is 695000 shares for an ASP of $0.84 for a cost of $585,366.94  I too will be holding out for $Millions 2020 is not to far away.  I've also traded kat 17 times  with highest sale coming at $1.89 in march and the lowest coming in May at $0.81  id sugggust people start looking at the big picture and holding these low positions before the day this

[Katanga]

Also Topdop, in an effort to find more positive, KAT had a fair amount of inventory left over from Q2, approx 750 tonnes of cobalt and 6000 tonnes of copper. So theoretically, we could see sales of approx 45,000 tonnes of copper and 2750 tonnes of cobalt. If we are lucky, revenue tomorrow would be in the order of 395M Also, moving forward, As they stockpile inventory of cobalt, a portion of

[Katanga]

Correction, I had KAT with approx 12000 tonnes of copper and 750 tonnes cobalt in inventory at the end of Q2.

[Dragone64]

https://www.miningmx.com/trending/35031-glencore-to-perversely-benefit-from-delay-in-katanga-mining-cobalt-exports/

[DasuDasu1]

Throwing Kat's shareholders under the bus again. You guys are true masochists.

[Cider6000]

My thoughts exactly.  There is about 3000 tons of saleable cobalt and 45-50Ktons of copper on the books for Friday report.  The worse case is a delay.... while the price of cobalt recovers.. or is squeezed upward. One of the better bullboards on stockhouse guys.