Longview Oil Corp LGVWF

Good news

[tulsatea]

Positive bias to the stock. We think the outlook for AAV is positively biased, regardless of the strategic process outcome. We think that AAV may sell its stake in LNV to finance expansion to 195 mmcf/d, and this could sideline investors until confirmed. Our call: as a going concern, AAV looks good, with strong results from the Upper & Lower Montney and new liquids data points for Middle Montney showing potential

[terroir]

Good news for AAV, but how does that translate for LNV? Market thinks shares will be hit if AAV sells into open market or with a discounted private deal. Terr

[tulsatea]

Simple--Assume it could be sold for $100,000/boe/day. Not unreasonable with tax pools, undeveloped land, etc.   Assume 6,200 production---$620 million price.   Assume $120 million debt---$500 million left over for shares--price per share $10.60.   If you don't like a $100,000/boe/day, you can try other scenarios.

[terroir]

Let's say I am the buyer, you are suggesting that I would pay $10.60 per share to Advantage, when exactly the same share is available at $6.24 on the open market. You are suggesting that I get less than 6% dividend yield. I don't think I will accept your kind offer. Now you want to rid yourself of 20 million shares, and you know that if you do this on the open market where the shares

[tulsatea]

Let us say LNV found a buyer for the company in Arc resources[ARX].  They would sell the entire company to ARX for ,38 shares of ARX shares for each share of LNV..  ARX share price is 26.40 and pays a 1.20 dividend. This works out to slightly less than $100,000/boe/day. As AAV has a controlling interest in LNV this would be simple to do and it works out to around ten dollars a