GREY:MLKKF - Post by User
Post by
bjorn3d2bon Nov 08, 2008 6:02am
428 Views
Post# 15573950
Strategy
StrategyOne has to have a strategy at this juncture. If I am a hedge fund in distress I just sell, it doesn't matter at what price period. If I am a value investor, maybe even a well run hedge fund. I am going to buy ML but on my own terms let the weak capitulate into my stink bids.
As for the little guy? Any one who has bought in over the past year has been clobbered. Only a few here have been owners long enough to still be in the money and now only by a little. We are not losers if we have not sold although many here regret that we did not sell some or all at much higher prices. I think every one got caught by the rapid decline and stunned in disbelief that the value could disappear that fast. So here we are as owners with an asset valued by "the market" at approximately $115 million Canadian or $99 million U.S..
What do I own for a $100 million?
- 300+ million pounds of moly production over +30 years
- 1.5 billion pounds of copper over +30 years
- A new state of the art Mill to process said resource now operational
- About the lowest cost producer in the sector
- A strong balance sheet
- A savvy management team
- A safe country to operate in
Please add to the list
If I had a $100 million bucks and thought I could buy ML for that I would be up day and night working on financing the purchase. I do not believe for a second shareholders would approve such an offer but I would still try. I am confident that the price of $1.47 CND per share for this asset will pay off big time over the next few years. Even at $1.50 copper and $8 Moly I can cover my expenses (including debt) and build up cash over the next 2 years enough to retire the debt. Then I am free and clear to build up cash and look at buying some very good extremely distressed companies with unbelievably cheap assets.
I sure don't know where the bottom is but we are only a buck and a half away from pricing in a dead world, do you think that is where the share price is going???? I don't. I think the world continues on a path of growth that includes the unsatiable need for these metals and that today's "market" has lost perspective of this and thus provides huge opportunity to make fortunes for those with a view out a few years. ML is a real solid mining operation not only will it survive this cycle low it will benefit from it as many projects are scrapped and the supply dwindles further supporting the commodity price and rewarding companies as good as ML.
IMHO
Bjorn