Novus Energy Inc NOVUF

RE:Canaccord morning coffee commentary

[counterintuitive247]

Canaccord is by my calculations one of the largest shareholders of Novus, guessing at around 18 million shares.  Steve has enlightened us on some of the public information, which i felt was shed in positive light.  

I believe Novus has always been for sale even before the process began.  Before invicta.  Probably at the same time Westfire was up for grabs.

Potential buyers are set with a mindset that if they aquire the simple math of 1 + 1 must equal 2.  So a reason for the lengthy process is the analysis of the dataroom and the production decline . Not over 30 days by over 360 days.  Im sure partys had interest at $85 oil, probably threw a stink bid in at $0.90 maybe even higher.  Novus BOD and 1st energy know theres more value so they turn down these offers.  Then time passes and Oil is at $105 a barrel with a tightened differential. the interest in the company appears again since theres very little to none on hedging.  Maybe someone came in with a bid at $1.05 like Nuthead thinks .  Still too low for the easy / low cost viking oil.....

Novus Share price has moved from a low at the beginning of July 0.64 cents to a high of 0.86 cent through August on more volume traded on the bought side in August then June 6.6m / July 7.5m / Aug 11.1m  and August is not done.... Is this a sign of people coming back and seeing opprotunity or is there something happening?  

I think the potential buyers are either:
a) Pension Plan owned companies
b) Div co companies.  

Therefore Decline matters for the long term investment of purchasing the Novus asset.  These guys want a 20% year over year return on $85 oil.

There is clearly a reason Novus has been silent.  I think that bids would be too low to accept if some company was purchased without taking time to do due diligence.  Its pobably why the deal went into a public process to start with because Novus wanted more Producers to see their treasure.

2nd qtr results come out soon,  I dont expect a AGM since the company has probably been exempt by the courts possibly.

My belief is 1.15 - 1.35 is where the deal will take place. Some time in the future hopefully before snow hits.