Nuvei Corporation Fine-tuning the model
Our view: As we approach the end of 4Q23, we are proactively fine-tuning the model to better reflect the material swings in the Crypto market, recent refinancing, and continued momentum in the business.
Key points:
What are our new numbers? We are adjusting our FY23 and FY24 revenue, adj. EBITDA, and adj. EPS to $1.2B/$434M/$1.70 from $1.2B/$432M/$1.69 and $1.4B/$502M/$2.02 from $1.4B/$495M/$2.02, respectively.
What are the biggest changes to the model? For FY23, we are increasing our 4Q23 Crypto market revenue to $22M from $18M, given the material moves in the Crypto market and modestly increasing our net interest expense. For FY24, we carried forward the modestly higher net interest expense associated with its recent debt refinancing and are modestly increasing our core organic global commerce growth.
No change in Outperform rating or price target. We believe NVEI continues to course correct from the challenges experienced in 2Q23, with 3Q23 results providing proof-points of its directional changes and we assume 4Q23 should only stand to solidify that management is making progress in better executing on the conversion pipeline with enterprise clients, coupled with continued Paya integration benefits.