RE:Horrible DayHere are some ideas and they haven't changed much since my last posts.
At the bottom an old article from Sept 2021 that emphasizes the present major problem with illegal gold mining in FG. This illegal operation is only going to compound if gold exploration is banned in 2022 in FG.
So, the problem for Macron is he can’t get a hold of the illegal mining mess in FG. The FG environmentalists are complaining about his inability here. Even the Legion can’t gain control as Covid has multiplied illegal mining in FG already (never mind those 15 or so exploration permits just waiting out there in limbo, ready to be vacated by the big boys and then overrun by illegals).
So, what has Macron done publicly if he can’t impact FG illegal mining? Well, he is 1. using Montagne D’Or denial as the focus for his environmental votes push. 2. has had the only legal gold producing facility in FG closed by court action (Auplata). 3. stopped all exploration renewal in FG (OREAs recent Maripa release is really a wait and see move to keep the company in the news and make it seem that all is well in FG gold exploration).
In fact, why would anyone think if Montagne D’ Or proves dead that any other FG gold mines in the next 5 years will be considered with all these new and ongoing CC deforestation goals and agreements? Which public company would throw millions into such FG exploration?
Nordgold apparently saw this FG anti gold mining sway back in 2020 and took legal action. NG will in all likelihood get a confidential settlement out of France due to the lack of environmental teeth in the 1989 France Russia Investment Treaty now being used in court.
Add that Macron has probably screwed himself/France due to all his support over the last decade for Montagne d’Or (leading to NG and OREA spending probably at least US$75 mill on ‘sunken costs’). Now he may well have to pay for this politically election motivated 180-degree survival turn. But why would a politican worry about less than a billion in a confidential settlement, the reason for which the greens support?
About settlement numbers? Remember, NG got their 2021 BFS which gives a legally recognized valuation to Montage d’Or (i.e., based on the previous 2017 BFS, plus the 2018 infill drill results included, plus update rocketed gold prices, plus all the savings via reduced carbon footprint re., energy production and lesser land mass clearance, etc). Most exploration companies going to legal battle are not at the BFS stage and so lack recognized evidence for their claims. It seems NG is 'armed' for legal battle and at around an 8 billion valuation for the entire project, even a 10% damages claim/award (55% to NG) is company impacting (especially one lookin to come public in 2022).
However, as for OREA’s Montagne D’Or 45%? I don’t see anyone buying out OREA even with these large recent trading blocks. Who would and why? To then have to go to the C of Arbitration where the environment is a legal defense? To buy a company that base on NG Montagne d’Or numbers is valued at US$ 3.5, bill but who will not share (NG is the manager and OREA basically a silient jnr partner) the BFS details in any confidential agreement. Why would even a Chinese miner do so, even with their less public shareholder concerns?
IMHO, the recent OREA share buyers are hoping that somehow OREA can get involved in the NG legal action. But that I think only comes from OREA somehow getting their 45% into NG’s hands (as a CAD company they cannot use the Franco Russian Treaty, maybe why NG never bothered even informing OREA 18 months ago).
Therefore, being bought by NG for a fire sale (a disaster for long term holders) or signing over OREA rights for I believe a bottom line 15% (would then include any award) to OREA (based on if NG had built out the mine entirely themselves), maybe OREAs only recourse for a possible benefit from Montagne d’Or (without a further 3 - 5 years of self-directed invariably worthless shareholder value via a C of Arb legal battle).
Again, long term shareholders better be praying for a NG/OREA move. NG clearly wants out of FG. Macron wants his environmental groups election support and Montagne D’Or, etc is on the sacrificial block. Maripa is in all likelihood dead as are the other miner’s exploration permits. The touted Suriname project if finalized will do little for OREA over 2022 (maybe traders will get the odd cents spike).
I would be delighted to read any counter arguments but please give reasons that have some validity to them. With 70% retail shareholders (The USA Investment fund and OCIM who were 2 of the 5 largest shareloders have gone in 2021! OREA said they were unaware of the NG legal action but something tells me these other holders may not have been). Why are so many shareholders holding and or buying?
JMHO. GLTA - https://twitter.com/EarthsRare
Mountains of gold, rivers of mercury: Poisoning of Guiana and the French Amazon
https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20210909-mountains-of-gold-rivers-of-mercury-poisoning-of-guiana-and-the-french-amazon