A game of poker!In response to JeddI, it would appear that what is a logical way forward to us is not so to the Chinese. I think you will find that in China an individual's judgement of how a particular situation fits with the overall economic circumstances, and what he or she can make out of it, is based on a completely different perception of the economy, to the perception that we Westerners have. Thus, when a company like Spur walks in through the door seeking permission to do something, instead of thinking "My job (for which I'm paid) is to interpret the law on behalf of the community, and get the best deal for the community, (something that would encompass doing the best to create jobs etc.)." the approach in China is "How can I get everything I can out of the company, for myself and my family." That includes under the table payments (bribes!), jobs for the family, and probably new roads, schools, and a whole host of other things.
I suspect that the debilitating thing for a company like Spur is that such demands are constant and endless, and always couched in terms of “if you can do this, we will do what you want.”. The trouble then is that when you do "this", you don't get what you want! You merely get another demand from the next civil servant you are sent to, who is probably just along the corridor.
In the face of these constant and recurring demands, what is a company to do?
The only tactic is to call a halt to all such demands, do it very publicly and emphatically, and tell all those with their hands out to get lost! The only thing the company can then do, is sit back and wait, but at the same time lobby at the highest levels, where the approach to making economic decisions may be more oriented towards the way we in the West do things.
In my view that is what has happened. Spur have told the scroungers to get lost, and indicated that they are prepared to wait it out. I think they are in a reasonably strong position to do this. That they are, is backed up by nilyab's excellent burrowing, which has elicited the response from Robert Rennie that nilyab has posted. In my opinion all the evidence shows that Spur have a business, aside from the mine, that they can grow for shareholders. Given that they are in a game of poker with all the scroungers, it must be quite comforting to be able to say, when one tells them to get lost, “We have a good business that we are developing, and we can wait years if necessary, without the mining rights being transferred so p*** off!”
In these circumstances, it is probably also a help to be able to say “Our shares are trading at the value of what we've got in the (Canadian) bank, and you ain't going to get your hands on any of that, until we get all the permissions we need. In the meantime, before we get them, you can't do us any more harm! You've done it all, already!”
So in my view we have a stalemate, but one in which Spur is not without cards in its hand. How long it will last? - heaven knows. But I don't think it will necessarily be a very long time. Again, it would appear to be a matter of poker and bluff. I suspect that Spur are being as tough as they can be in their approach. So it could be months, or years. Who knows? For my part, my stock is in my bottom drawer, and I'm forgetting about it, except that I've averaged down at these prices, so I'm not showing too large a loss. I'm happy for my cash to be tied up at these prices, a) because I think that Spur can make a business out of the Tianren merger companies and the production they do have, and b) because I believe that if the permissions needed come through, and the mining rights are transferred, the “proverbial” will hit the fan, and the price will rocket - with me buying on the way up. So greedy old “me” is going to make a lot of money.
Here endeth the lesson! All in my humble opinion, of course! What I do think it that we all owe some thanks to those, like nilyab, who beaver away at getting valuable information and posting it here so that we can all benefit from it. Thanks to them all!
Barley