RE: Thanks are in order.. I love digging deeper into things. And on this board I can think out loud. Bounce ideas off other like minded people. I love doing it and no problem. A reasonable part of my retirement is banking on SND , SAND, SLW, FNV, RGL. All NSR and streaming companies. So it's in my best interest to know what I am talking about. And If I don't know listen to guys and girls that do know.
I agree that the market is not giving any value to this deal yet. Or the market may be even taking some value off the table. A la negaative 8% in one day. The market is not always rationale and often over-reacts. In 5 years this deal may be bringing in 20% of the cash flow for a very small initial investment. It doesn't feel like it now because 55 million is alot of money under our current market cap.
In 5 years we will have or may have a 4 billion market cap and this deal will have seemed pretty reasonable and not that significant. The potential to lose 55 million vs making 600 million dollars or such.... So 10:1 reward to risk ratio. You would only have to be correct 10% of the time on deals like this to be profitable. In Math probability theory. I would give the Mongolian mine and this deal more like a 50% chance of going well. So I can justify this kind of risk in my mind. And I'm a shareholder. So this is how I sleep well at night. The fact that we are predicted to generate 200 million dollars a year in the very near future also soothes my anxiety.
Overall I will give Nolan this one. Just layer these homerun cuts in once every 3-5 years as to not freak people out. And maintain our rationale and smart and geopolitically safe streaming portfolio. Just my thoughts on it. And on everything. Thanks for reading.