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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Stelco Holdings Inc STZHF


Primary Symbol: T.STLC

Steel Steel
Stelco Holdings Inc. is a Canada-based integrated and independent steelmaker with advanced integrated steelmaking facilities in North America. The Company is engaged in the production and sale of steel products. The Company produces flat-rolled value-added steels, including coated, cold-rolled, and hot-rolled steel products, as well as pig iron and metallurgical coke. It also provides gauge... see more

Bullboard (TSX:STLC)

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Comment by fishcarrieron Oct 01, 2021 12:50pm

RE:What's not to like

TipRanks has lowered their outlook, but the lo is still the same at $55, medium is $59.25 and the hi $62. So, yes I agree with you I will not be selling this stock anytime soon. Futures in steel ...more  
146
Discussion
Post by forkliftguyon Oct 01, 2021 11:13am

What's not to like

I rode this stock up to 51 dollars .  At that price I thought  it was undervalued .  Now it has fallen to 36 dollars .  I bought some more this morning .  It continues to be ...more  
174
Discussion
Post by fishcarrieron Oct 01, 2021 9:53am

Question

My goodness people, is this slide ever going to stop? We've lost 28% of our value since the shares hit $50. Now it's a mere 1.6 times future earnings. I guess I take comfort in the analysts ...more  
140
Comment by fishcarrieron Sep 30, 2021 8:01am

RE:RE:Price of steel

I realize that. The reason I look at that is because Alan said in an interview on TV he always looks at the CRU. Yes, futures look pretty decent going forward. I prefer those rates obviously. However, ...more  
159
Discussion
Comment by marsman1on Sep 29, 2021 4:27pm

RE:Price of steel

you are  only looking at the "spot" which is Dec. (don't know why) in fact all the futures Oct. Nov. Dec. Etc.were very strong today.
166
Discussion
Post by fishcarrieron Sep 29, 2021 3:59pm

Price of steel

is way down today. I know Alan said he always looks at the CRU. Today it posted $1572. That's about $1965 CAN. Still pretty good, but the first time in a long while I've seen it this low ...more  
193
Discussion
Comment by Jasonuwon Sep 29, 2021 9:55am

RE:RE:RE:Expected earnings

So two things. We were both right and we were both wrong. I checked the MD&A. There is ~917 million in tax attributes on a pre-tax basis as of end of Q2 2021. This is down from 1.2 billion from ...more  
179
Discussion
Comment by fishcarrieron Sep 29, 2021 9:31am

RE:RE:Expected earnings

You're right. I forgot about the taxes. If we even take off 1/3rd of what I suggested as extra income, then 67% of the extra 6.15 = 4.10. Add that to Q2's 4.28 and you get $8.38.  I ...more  
115
Discussion
Comment by Jasonuwon Sep 28, 2021 9:26pm

RE:RE:RE:RE:Expected earnings

Oops. I had mistead initially. Your option 1 is my option 4. Point still stands, if it is option 1 (or option 4) with a reduced lead time of now 6 weeks, Alan won't be able to predict Q1 unless he ...more  
107
Discussion
Comment by Jasonuwon Sep 28, 2021 9:23pm

RE:RE:RE:Expected earnings

Good analysis. I think lead times are down quite a bit over the last 3 months from 12 weeks now down to 6 weeks and dropping. It's one of the main risk factors I am seeing. This is for Midwest ...more  
130
Discussion
Comment by geosan0on Sep 28, 2021 7:29pm

RE:RE:Expected earnings

I've been seeing a lot more interest on this thread so I decided to add my 2 cents worth. The estimate posted by fishcarrier is not far off what management said during its Q1 conference call ...more  
128
Discussion
Comment by Jasonuwon Sep 28, 2021 12:58pm

RE:Expected earnings

Stelco had tax assets that substantially reduced their net tax payable to almost zero. Knock off 25% of pretax income for tax moving forward. Also Stelco is lagging on their prices realized versus ...more  
151
Discussion
Post by fishcarrieron Sep 28, 2021 11:21am

Expected earnings

In Q. 2 Stelco shipped 679.000 tons of steel at $1292/ton yielding $4.28/sh.  I think it is reasonable for Stelco this quarter to ship the same tonnage, this time for $700/ton more, ie $1992 ...more  
273
Discussion
Comment by fishcarrieron Sep 27, 2021 7:11pm

RE:Declining SP

In answer, the stock moved up today. Hor roll steel was down another $5 today on the CRU to $1695, but that's still a very healthy $2100 CAN. That's a sight more than the $1292 of last quarter ...more  
143
Discussion
Comment by extremeriskon Sep 26, 2021 3:10pm

RE:RE:Q1 average is 1300usd

Ok I see what you are saying now however you are assuming HRc continues to trend down towards their cost to produce.  I believe that is unlikely given the view from fed and the entire world ...more  
147
Discussion
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