Latest on SCZ from Excelsior Excelsior
14 hours ago
Santacruz was one of my best performers in 2019, 2020, 2021, and earlier in 2022. It trounced most of the other silver producers or developers over that timeframe, and much of that outperformance was because they were delivering on operational success.
Look, they made a large acquisition from Glencore of all their Bolivian assets mines, mills, power stations, and have only had 1-2 quarters to sort out what they have and the production process, so I wouldn’t say they “screwed up production expenses and depletion rates.” That makes it sound like some chronic mismanagement, which is simply not the case. Yes the Q3 numbers looked bad at looked at from a year over year perspective, but they are a totally different company now, sorting out multiple mines, and I figured Q3 and and Q4 still to report, were going to reflect some growing pains. Still, I see them set up as a serious mid-tier silver and base metals producer for 2023 and that they are still very undervalued considering all the assets they now have under their umbrella.
I sold out of my Santacruz in early December of last year to book all the gains I had in SCZ and wash them out against other losses in the PM sector for last year, (not something that was the case in many of the PM stocks). I added my first tranche back the first week of January, and would love the opportunity to add back even more if silver corrects for a bit.
>> Here is the 5 year chart of Santacruz for context of how they have been performing the last few years:
https://schrts.co/GqDqIGru
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Excelsior
14 hours ago
I’m thinking that Q4 results (that likely get reported next week) will underwhelm market expectations, and that this may hit the stock a bit as retail investors that don’t understand the larger picture and then capitulate. Personally, I’ve been expecting things to get a bit messy for their first 2 real quarters of production from the 2nd half of last year, and hoping to capitalize on any market confusion.
I’ll be looking for that kind of over-reaction from retail, possibly paired with further weakness in Silver, to scoop up some more SCZ on the cheap in a 2nd tranche later next week or later this month. If Santacruz gets stuck in a longer down draft for a few months, then I’ll likely add a 3rd tranche into any extreme oversold conditions.
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Dan, calgary
13 hours ago
Thanks for the informative rebuttal, I learned from it, haha… I think it will be a laggard directly for the timing of it’s poor quarterly report. It is very unfortunate that it has fallen while many other micros and the CDNX (bellow) have risen nicely in the last month.
https://schrts.co/akpNiwmr
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Excelsior
11 hours ago
Yes, agreed Dan. It likely does have a bit more weakness to move through.
Yes, it may have been a laggard in the very recent past, compared to other stocks, but over the last few years, it outperformed the rest of the sector handsomely, and it has blown away most of the other PM producers or developers.
This operational takeover of Glencore’s Bolivian silver/base metals mines, may make for a bit more friction with investors, as it will likely take them another quarter or 2 to get it all sorted, but again, medium to longer term, I see and weakness to come as an attractive spot to build my position back up again into the confusion and F.U.D. from retail investors.
I don’t want SCZ to get creamed bad or anything, as that would be counter-productive, but in a way, I am hoping it sees a bit more weakness this month on the Q4 numbers being released, as retail punters keep capitulating, so that I’ll be able to buy some more from the weak hands, for a position trade over the next 1-2 years.