Operational forecasts and SP targets. The recent post about the Rouge 10 SP forecasts show the differences between operational forecasts and price targets.
Rouge 10 is really good in his operational forecasts, he post detailled ans sound analysis on the topics. We all appreciate them. I suspect that he is an accountant, or close to this. But accountants are not the most successfull investors.
Operational analysis is about the numbers, results and facts. The Rouge 10 operational forecasts score is not bad. Quarterly results disclosed by AC is not too far from his forecasts. His knowledge serve him (and us too).
But stock market is not only about results but about emotions too, fear and greed. That's the difference. Simply appliyng multiples to the forecasts (or other math operations) to find a projected SP is a mistake ; that gave future SP of 100$ and over. Huge difference with the current SP of 17$.
I have posted some opinion about brokers analysis (on the BBD board); theirs targets are the least important item of theirs analysis, I read carefully their explanation of the strenght and weakness of companies and their foreseeable future; given little importance to their targets. Analyst know that give targets is not so easy; they have the wisdoom to publish reacheable targets only.
I never buy the 60$, 100$ forecasts of Rouge 10, but I highly appreciate his analysis.
The Rouge 10 posts often used for reference, this is useful for us and that must continue.