Air Canada T.AC

Operational forecasts and SP targets.

[Tempo1]

The recent post about the Rouge 10 SP forecasts show the differences between operational forecasts and price targets. 

Rouge 10 is really good in his operational forecasts, he post detailled ans sound analysis on the topics. We all appreciate them. I suspect that he is an accountant, or close to this. But accountants are not the most successfull investors. 

Operational analysis is about the numbers, results and facts. The Rouge 10 operational forecasts score is not bad. Quarterly results disclosed by AC is not too far from his forecasts. His knowledge serve him (and us too).

But stock market is not only about results but about emotions too, fear and greed. That's the difference. Simply appliyng multiples to the forecasts (or other math operations) to find a projected SP is a mistake ; that gave future SP of 100$ and over. Huge difference with the current SP of 17$. 

I have posted some opinion about brokers analysis (on the BBD board); theirs targets are the least important item of theirs analysis, I read carefully their explanation of the strenght and weakness of companies and their foreseeable future; given little importance to their targets. Analyst know that give targets is not so easy; they have the wisdoom to publish reacheable targets only.  

I never buy the 60$, 100$ forecasts of Rouge 10, but I highly appreciate his analysis.

The Rouge 10 posts often used for reference, this is useful for us and that must continue.

[Contrarian333]

Well said.

[thinkyourmoney]

I don't agree with you at all.  Making money is about creating more income than you spend, owning more  than you owe and having a plan for achieving performance targets to manage your business to grow and provide returns on the capital you have borrowed from lenders and the owners/stock holders of the business. Financial reports are to update people regularly and honestly and you

[Tempo1]

I am not talking about my or your emotions but about the emotions that drive the market. A company could be value at 8 times its EPS ( or whatever yo want) at one time  and at 12 times 3 months later with the same operational numbers. The difference is the market sentiment. CNN markets has an index about that : https://www.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed I have a rational approach to the

[Contrarian333]

As soon as you mentioned Kevin O' Leary as some beacon of investing competence you lost me :)