OTCPK:AETLF - Post by User
Comment by
Wise_Foolon Oct 24, 2014 5:38am
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Post# 23057423
RE:The Latest Presentation
RE:The Latest PresentationGrossly mistaken seems a bit of an over statement. With CF at 3.08 per share, and dividend guided at 10% of trailing CF, that equates to 30 cents per share. With current dividend at .28 per share, that leaves little room for any failure. With N Dakota decline rates, do you really think they will maintain 5000 boe for long? Some of these N Dak wells have 1st year decline rates at about 50%. Princess decline rates are near 30%. They will be hard pressed to maintain production above 4500, perhaps 4200 for very long into 2015. That puts the dividend at risk in my opinion.
They are living on their hedges right now. Most of these hedges expire at the end of December 2014. They cannot replace them with oil now at just over 80 bucks per. Do you think the market is going to wait until the last second before reacting? I don't think so. Grossly mistaken? I don't think so. Mistaken, perhaps, but not grossly. I will restate. They will be hard pressed to maintain their agressive dividend policy.