Aris Mining Corp. T.ARIS

Let's Talk About Q2

[tobinator01]

I mentioned before the stock was not behaving right with an extreme move higher after the April 15th Press Release.  There was nothing in the PR that I could point to for investors to expect an upside surprise.  Yet Bullish volume and price continued marching on.  In the end, it looks like the big move started okay but then was fueled by momentum chasers who likely know very little about the Aris fundamentals.  Hence, a 11% pull back was those momentum chasers dumping hard and giving anyone who shorted the rally a nice pay day.  Personally, I'm going back into this market and adding to my warrant position.

Q1 Gold price was $2061 and Q2 should easily be over $2300 as an average.  For arguments sake, I'm going to use $2300 for Q2.  Aris reaffirmed production guidance of 220-240k for 2024.  This means we should expect about 10,000 more ounces produced and sold in Q2.  Using Q1's 51,044 production with $2300, results in revenue of $117 million.  Add another 10,000 ounces, we land on a total Q2 revenue of $140 million.  That my friends is a 33% increase from Q1 to Q2.

Their cash balance will improve during the year in part from increasing revenue but also Marmato Lower Mine Development.  On Page 8 of their current presentation in the footnotes they show:  "US$122M remaining payable in three installments based on project completion: $40M at 25% complete, $40M at 50% complete and $42M at 75% complete".  The next slide shows the Project's timeline.  It looks like by the end of this year they will be 50% complete.  Hence, an $80M cash infusion by year's end.  Therefore, I don't see Aris needing to raise capital.

The best news within this mediocre Q1 report is the Segoiva expansion project is going smoothly and their guidance of going online in early 2025 remains solidly believable.

[joar8888]

Agreeded 100%, the warrants were a bargin and I loaded up too! Too many short term thinkers.

[a2bman]

whats the strike on the warrants.  

[joar8888]

29/7/25. $6.00

[ppp]

It takes 2 warrants and the strike is 5.50. 

[lilbugger]

2 warrants plus $5.50 until July 2025 to get one share.  Stock was trading below $5.50 when it dipped on poor Q1 results and the warrants held around $0.40.  So given there's a little over 14 months left that means that the time value of the warrants is about $0.035 per month when trading around the strike price. Stock closed Friday at $5.77 or $0.27 over the strike price or $0.135

[tobinator01]

The Black-Scholes model is widely recognized as the authoritative method for determining fair value of an option (put, call, warrant etc).  It uses in its calculations Risk Free Interest Rate, Current Stock Price, Strike Price, Time to Expiry and Volatility.  Volatility has a dramatic impact on the underlying value calculated.  There are two types of Volatility, which are Implied