ARC Resources Ltd T.ARX

Tourmaline Concerns

[MyHoneyPot]

I have to share my deep concerns regarding the impact on TOU could have on ARC's market cap.

Tourmaline currently has a market cap of 14.4 billion while ARC resources only has a market cap of 8.7 billion. 

Tourmalines current trading price is 45.78 dollars a share. 

So my concern is the next earning release when people see the cashflow that ARC is throwing off, likely exceed the CF that we will see from Tou, that gap in market cap may evaporate and it will be the last opportunity for us as shareholders to get ARC at this attractive evaluation. 

As previously mentioned today oil closed at 79.09 today, and last time i looked condensate was trading at 3.21 premium to WTI, so condensate is now trading at 82.40 U.S. or at least somewhere in that price range, at a .79 cent cent canadian dollar that makes condensate $104.31 when compared to a 4 dollars aeco gas price that make one boe of condensate equal to roughly 4.35 boe of gas production.


4.35 * 60,000 = 260,759 Gas equalivent boe at a price much higher then Q2 average price

260,759 - 60,0000 = 200,759 # of boe to add to arc production to make it compareable to TOU

So if ARC produces 350,000 boe in the 3rd quater that would be equivalent to TOU producing 550,000 boe of production with their current commodity mix. 

I am worried when the market figures out ARC will CF more that TOU the gap might evaporate immediately. 

That would mean closing the marketcap gap in the current 5.7 billion dollar difference in market cap evaluation, 5.7/8.7 = 65% upside to just have the same market cap as tou or 20 dollars a share to have the same relative market cap. 

However I believe 1 boe of condensate is worth more than 4 boe of gas and we should trade at a premium to TOU.

I am worried my fears will become reality on or before November 4, 2021

IMHO

ARC should be trading north of 20 dollars.

IMHO

[uncutgems]

you should be more worried that arx managment will make another acquisition that more than doubles the share count.

[Beakr123]

Im confused, is this Uncutgems or Bagcheese commenting? Its hard to distinguish. 

[uncutgems]

I see the ankle biter is back sniping again.. i await ONE intelligent idea from you. is that too much to ask?

[Wildfury]

MHP, why would you have concerns? You should be happy if ARX tops $20. Why are the ARX fan club members trolling the TOU board? Do you guys troll the CREW, CPG, WHITE CAP, MEG, CVE, ect, ect boards or is it just TOU? MHP, you're one of the reasons why I sold all my ARX shares months ago. Your constant whining, your displeasure with Arc's management, their Attachie aspirations, their half

[MyHoneyPot]

The market has mispriced ARC,   The opportunity is so compelling that I needed to suck it up, letting the market forces direct management to do the right thing. When the business circumstances become obvious to everyone, common sense will prevail, and management will be required to do what is best for the share holders.   I think TOU is a great stock and fairly evaluated in terms of

[renoman1960]

If you sold all your arx for tou and are never looking back and you hate arx investors on tou board why are you putting your 2 cents on our board, do as you say move on and don't look back.

[altagold]

YES ARC IS A MONEYPOT,  ITS CASH FLOW WILL BE BIG TIME, THE STCK WILL GO NORTH OF $20 SHARE, YOUR MATH IS CORRECT, FACTS ARE THE NUMBERS DO NOT LIE,