matt2018 wrote: ATH is no different now than most of the other quality oil names (in terms of valuation).
The big time move up has already taken place.
When price of oil goes up, the quality oil names all go up.
When ATH was $5.50, SU was trading at $55.
When ATH drops down to around $5 level, SU drops to $50, and so on.
Question is, what will get ATH share price higher, faster?
How about a reverse stock split to 275M shares (same float as MEG) which tightens the float.
ATH has appr a third of MEG production and enterprise value is currently about a third of MEG, so current valuation is in line.
Forgot the buybacks and use the FCF to grow the thermal and duvernay assets to 40k bbl/day instead (without adding on debt and staying net cash).
That will get the valuation closer to $4B ($15/share).
Only way ATH can go up from here as is..... a takeout offer or price of oil rockets higher.
If price of Oil stays in this range $70 to $80, ATH stays in this present trading range as well (no catalyst to really move it).
filefish wrote: Yes the capital gains tax situation is keeping a lid on the share price for the moment and is giving ATH the opportunity to buyback more than might be the case. However I think we are a long way from where the outstanding share count needs to be in order to see a meaningful affect when buyers do come in. I would say that the share count needs to be in the 450mil range, down about 100mil from where it is today. With the some of cash they have on hand, an SIB could eliminate more than half of that in one chunk.
Regarding the new capital gains rate increase, one has to keep in mind that you have to have a gain in the first place so lets hope ATH can break out of the 4.80 - 5.10 doldrums trading range and then deal with paying the cap gains tax later.