Athabasca Oil Corp T.ATH

90.21 CAD WCS Wonderful

[MLEWICKIMBA]

Look historically over the last ten years.

And when it comes to ATH with no income tax payable its all to the bottom line.

God bless all energy investors.

We have a lot to look forward to.

[Sugaree]

Come November once the refinery maintenance season is over, WCS should firm up. Then, of course, closer we get to TMX even firmer come new year.

[MLEWICKIMBA]

100% Watch out is what the ATH CEO said. 500M in cash flow possible in 2024.

[cahclick]

  We've all come to accept the dreaded "refinery maintenance season " - truth is, it's just one of the reasons US gives to pay less for Alberta WCS. Once TMX is pumping, that lame excuse will no longer matter as Alberta oil can go to all international markets. go ath go

[riski]

A lot of the anticipation for TMX is already built into names like this and MEG and CJ. It's a known thing less than 6 months away and thr market prices those kinds of things in. I'm not sure why we should expect a rerate in that fact alone. We shouldn't. After all that's why ATH has moved significantly over the part 9 months. A big part of that IS TMX. But there are other

[Sugaree]

Yes, a steady oil price in the $80-$95 range on a consistant basis will help too, for ATH and all the Canadian O&G's. I believe when TMX gets online then the WTI/WCS gap will narrow again and not widen so much in the future and that will help the rerates as well. The narrower the spread, the better far all the Canadian heavy oil producers. Oil 

[MLEWICKIMBA]

Disagree  There is nothing built into the price on ATH for TMX because there is no financial benefit right now. $5.00 USD move om WCS is $80M CAD for ATH. $24 USD Spread right now.  When it goes to $12 USD that means $192M CAD per annum potentially in extra cash flow at Current Production.   Therefore for ATH it means being able to redeem 40M shares per year every year or

[OGInvest0r]

Agree with your analysis ML! 4.24 reflects oil price plus the recent sale of the asset. Not TMX stuff. 

[riski]

It is rather naive, though not unique, to think we have some secret insight or have done some smart analysis that will impact a company's share price in a way that the rest of the market is not seeing. It's a retail investor's fatal flaw and the reason that retail traders lose on most of their trades.  Can we really believe that there is no one else anticipating TMX completion

[OGInvest0r]

So the burning Q is are you long or short on Ath right now with this 9 month ahead wisdom like the big boys and if so, why?

[cahclick]

  riski, I don't know how you go about investing if you believe what you wrote. ATH has been really good to me and I personally think there's still lots of room to run yet. My belief is every sector has its day in the sun and oilcos are having their day right now. The trick is to buy in when sentiment is darkest and step off the train when the talking heads are screaming "

[riski]

So you're saying you invest on the basis of loyalty (something has been good to you) and unsubstantiated "beliefs"? That's not an investment thesis. That's a hope and a prayer. I am long CAD O&G because the macro data indicates a supply shortage and increasing demand that looks to continue for the next 3-4 years at a minimum with supply being held in check by green

[cahclick]

  When I bought into ATH it was pennies per share. I didn't get the bottom but close enough for me (sentiment at it's darkest). I'm currently up 25x. My " hope and a prayer " thesis seems to be working. glta longs go ath go