TSX:AX.P.E - Post by User
Post by
Torontojayon Apr 09, 2024 5:36am
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Post# 35978251
Fed funds futures
Fed funds futures It is now a coin toss whether or not we get a cut in June. The CME Fed watch tool now predicting a 48.5% cut on June 12th vs a 50.2% chance of a pause. There is a very small chance of 50 bps of cuts by that date.
On July 31st which would be just over 1 year from the last rate hike, there is a 49.1% chance of 25 bps of cuts, 19.9% of 50 bps of cuts, and only a 30.5% chance that it stays the same. Any other probable outcomes (0.5%) are outliers and negligible.