My take on the interview My take on the interview:
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Danone might not happen at all since it may be not so advantageous for the company
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Revenues will be lumpy for another 2-3 quarters
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RTDs is the real money maker that allows them to be cash flow positive
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Toddler category is small
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Hedge funds manipulate the stock
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Expect more dilution
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Serious investors still not convinced about their performance
Considering that market is forward looking, is the next dilution already baked in the stock price now?
Considering that they have been able to capture more than 1% of the toddler TAM so far (15% of $5.5B in NA)
$5.5B *0.15 = $750M * 0.01 = $7.5M
Does the market think they will be able to capture 1% ( around $220M) revenues of the $22B children RTDs category and consequently 1% of the $40B Adult RTD TAM ($400M)?
Stock is valued at $35M entering respectively a $22B and $40B addressable market - is this extremely undervalued?