RE:RE:RE:Some toughtsHey Truth.
This is JMHO on what I perceive to be a biased, and fair assessment of of the company, from what I've read, and seen in the BJ sector. Make sure you do your own DD. I don't want to be responsible for anyones decisions here. You asked for my opinion and I'll give it to you.
I don't know how this group of bumbling idiots of the
previous management with Pierre Beaudoin at the helm did it??? But they did it. They chose the right DIVISION to keep and got rid of the headaches. Their decision may have had to do with concrete facts of running both BT & BBA over so many years? I personally didn't want to keep BBA. I thought the Revs weren't enough to sustain the LTD. I wanted them to keep BT, because of the huge Revs coming from BT. I failed to realize at the time that Pierre Beaudoin had run BT into the ground by raping BT for every cent to stay afloat. So BT wasn't salvageable. Therefore BBA was.the company to go with because it was the only profitable one.
In comes Martel who ran BBA before going to Quebec Hydro, and the rest is history. I'm sure EM made the decisions to go with Bart D, and to go gung-ho at the Service expansion, and increase production with Pearson. The decisions there by EM were the key factors. The rest fell into place with some luck. Covid being one of them. They got so lucky when they closed everything down with Covid, because they had the cash from the BT sale. They also got the headwinds from Covid's flight policies. The closing down of all commercial Aviation, was & is still a big factor on the Bomber headwinds. Had they even kept the Commercial Aviation side (the CSeries), they might have suffered in the Business Aviation side.
I say this though. It's about time that this company got some headwinds from their dismal past. In fact the headwinds of Covid were so strong that EM & Bart got the house in order in a short couple of years. Sorry for the history of the Bomber but I had to put this good fortune into perspective. The story wasn't complete without it.
Well what does that story have to do with the Bomber backlog, and the future orders for BJ's, to your point? A lot. According to what we hear, and see from all the companies writting about the BJ Aviation orders.This BJ sector has grown heavily, in the past 2 years, and is going to keep growing at a 10% to 15% pace in the future. This is the Commercial Aviation's gift to the Bombardier Business Jet Division. It's time they (Commercial Aviation) gave something to a great Inovator (ie. the CSeries).
Truth, if Honeywell is right? Then I'll tell you this. Bombardier will get 5% to 7.5% of those orders. Why? Because Pearson can produce all the orders these guys (BJ users) can throw at them. These fleet operators need to get their planes as fast as they can, so that they can compete with eachother in their fields. The private sector is almost the same. Given their ability to sell their smaller planes now, in this hot re-sale market. Why wouldn't they get a bigger plane from Bombardier who can produce one very quickly? As far as I'm concerned EM was a genious when he went gungho on large Business Aviation side. The Bomber shareholders were used to losse's & cash useage, with previous managements, so why not put the growth cycle of BBA right at the biginning of the transformation to the BJ Division, & strengthen it to the point that they are the
LEADER. of the BJ sector. While at the same time paying off LTD with BT cash.
This company's Service Division will start to produce heavy Revs soon with all the BJ's they're producing. They'll take away business from other OEMS & even other Private Service providers for the Bomber planes. Remember this company's Service side for BJ's, was non-existent before 2020/1.
Look, who are we to second guess Research Analysis like Honeywell for BJ manufacturing growth for the next 10 years. We take that as fact and hope our company (Bombardier) grabs a huge chunk of it.
As for Book to Bill ratios. Even if we just got 1 to 1 ratio's going forward, we'll do just fine. We also have a 15% to 20% growth targets on our production, starting 2923. So it's possible that we may very well just have, 1 to 1 B to B ratios, going forward for 2023/4/5, given the 10%-15% Y/Y Honeywell prediction of the BJ's industry increase's, on the demand side. Hope this is of help. Again this is JMHO of course. Do your own DD. Cheers
Truthifest wrote: 859 and temp, for me, the biggest swing factor now is orders. What do u guys see happening there?
Things might be a bit mixed. Gollan's company reports that the number of private jet flights has for several months now fallen below (huge) 2021's, but still up a lot vs pre-Covid 2019. One data point says the recent drop is less for bigger jets, as we'd expect, tho. And of course a ton of chatter in the investment world is about a possible recession next year, which could of course be making some purchasers, prob esp corporate buyers, a bit hesitant to pull the trigger on such a big-ticket item. But on the other side of that, commercial airlines keep cutting flights, and as I've posted here, some of that slack is being taken up by private flights. And one of Gollan's recent weekly private flight reports quotes a fleet owner saying if they could use twice the planes they have now. So, some mixed info, but I think still with an upward bias.
Longer term, still seems positive, as projected by Honeywell and thinking a decent chunk of the new demand will be sticky.