RE:RE:RE:RE:Some toughtsRegarding your statement "No one knows what will happen when the Central bank achieves the inflation rate they are aiming for." actually, we do know.
As soon as inflation is clearly headed to the targeted 2-3% range, then interest rates will be lowered, in tandem with that inflation reduction until interest rates also get to the neutral range. They will not wait for inflation to get in that range before lowering becuase inflation in the economy is like a supertanker - it takes leadtime to change direction. Interest rates are the rudder. You have to steer well ahead of the turn.
The main reason we have the current problem is that the central banks all miscalculated during the COVID crisis and thought that the inflation they were seeing was temporary and they didn't need to do anything about it. Turns out mainstream macroeconomic theory stating that excessive government spending will drive inflation is correct and that is what happened here.
Once inflation gets in the 2-3% band, if there is a recession, then we can expect central banks to lower interest rates below the neutral level to give some juice to the economy so that inflation doesn't go below the lower threshold of the band (assuming they don't misjudge and think it is temporary as well - if they do, it is time for them to be fired and put someone with some brains in their place).
None of this is a mystery or conjecture as the Fed/Bank of Canada/western central banks all try to be as transparent as they can about this so that everyone's expectations is that inflation will always come back to that 2-3% range. That avoids runaway inflation which is caused by everyone believing inflation will be high and therefore build it into their wage demands/product pricing.
So, knowing this, we know that we are near the top of interest rates. Nothing but positive to come and the speed will depend on the reduction in interest rates. My belief is that the best estimate of that is oil/gas prices - so much of the economy and transportation of goods depend on that factor. Since that seems to be going in the right direction, I think inflation will continue headed in the right direction. Couple that with China relaxing its COVID policies so that the supply changes will start to revert back to normal and things should start looking better very soon.