RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Blue sky ahead!You seem to be a very colorful fella.
We both know very well, that they have about $1B to $1.2B more for the clear the 3 year runway. It's in your/mine posts below. But that's the 01/2023 bond you're refering to, and that was brought down by $250M already from the first, and second extended buyback offering.
Look.
BT proceeds of $3.6B.
-After repayment of the revolving LOI. They should have had $2.9B left over.
-they paid out close to $2B for the bonds due, from now, till the end of 2023.
-They should now have left about $900M in the bank from BT + $1.8 in reserves =
$2.7B But this is the the killer with Bombardier here. They only have $2.2B left after Q1 2021, according, to what we're hearing from the media, $2.2 is the number. Why is that? The media is close I think, because the Bombardier Q1 statements show, that they had a cashburn/usage of $400M for Q1.
So. If we we were, at $2.7B cash in hand - $400M cashburn, we probably have close to $2.2B left over. So the media is right.
But.
You & I, talked about this before. They still have to put in a
Revolving Line of Credit in place for BA. That
LOC hasn't been put in place yet, because they are using their own $2.2B cash to fund these Inventory purchases, and, or whatever Operating Expenses they use the LOC for. So that they can save the interest, from not carrying an LOC right now.
Folow so far?
Next will be the repayment of that Bond you are refering to. The last remaining $1B JBD of 01/2023 #097751BF7.
How do they deal with it?
They can do it in many ways.
They can sit there, and operate like this for a while, even till mid 2022. Or they can put in an LOC in place, today? Remember that, that LOC rate has to be secured, so maybe, they are trying to figure things out right now. The other thing they have to figure out is, how BIG that LOC has to be, with this stand alone BA.. They have to operate BA for a full year to see what size of LOC they need. So they have runway for that LOC.
Now assuming that LOC is put in place for $750M. As you say they have to have
$1.5B on hand, as cash reserves as well.
If they put the LOC in place closer to the due date of the 2023 Bond (Jim's Bond), not to be confused with James Bond of course. Then, they can save 3%-4% interest from now till then.
So my guess is that, that's what we'll see next. An LOC put in place. When? I don't know.
But when the LOC goes in place.
Then they'll have another Billion to be able to discharge that $1B Bond, from cash or cash equivelents on hand. So from above $2.2 (cash on hand) + $750M (LOC) = $2.95B cash on hand. So they need $1.5B in cash reserves going forward, and to pay off that $1B 2023 Bond (Jim's Bond) with above money of a
total of $2.5B. No need to make another offering from the Junk Bond market. In fact they'll have $1.9B cash on hand, or cash equivalents to carry on. So left over $400M (I hope) from $2.9B - $2.5B used. That's why I said that I'm not worried about the debt till 2024. Even the 2024 is doable with a good
RATING by then, and some cash that they have left over in reserves to take care of it.
Now I'm hoping that, you have, a handle on the LTD.
You're a smart guy? Why don't you contribute on the real problem here? The cashburn. I know you only like coloring other peoples posts but, this
CASHBURN is a real problem. What do you make of it? Why are they burning cash? That's what sitting on my craw. Because if they keep this cashburn up? They won't have anything left to do anything with past Q4. This problem is Quarter, by Quarter, that we're dealing with.
Cheers
859
Jim99999 wrote: What colour would you prefer?
Your statement implied that this offering provided the 3 year runway that BBD has stated it wants. It does not. They will still need to raise another $1-1.5B to achieve this goal. They can not cover this with cash on hand. They need to keep about $1.5B on hand to run the business.
If they are to acheive a 3 year runway, they will need to raise these funds in 2021.
Jim
BBDB859 wrote: Give it a rest Jim.
Highlighting in yellow is a bit annoying. You're a smart guy. Fill in the spots. Do you have to be spoon fed with everything. Yes they are getting rid of Bond #097751BJ9 with the offering dated 10/2022.
Here it is.
-C1R774AB1 - Paid in full. $486.6 (05/2021)
-0097751BP5 - $61.1M left over (12/2021)
-097751AY7 -$181.2 left over (03/2022)
-097751BJ9 -$1.2 remaining (10/2022). This is the one paid by the offering.
-097751BF7 -$1.23 remaining (01/2023)
So they've done their math, and they'll have to get rid of $1.23 in 2023 with cash on hand. Or worse come to worse depending on their cash situation they'll refinance it when they do their remaining cash total, and when they figure out what they'll need to run BA.
We are in great shape on the debt for the next 3 years. We have a problem with the +FCF Quarters right now. If they don't get their act together soon? We may see a refinancing of that 2023 payment, because of the cashburn. That is our problem. It's not an easy one for this company, either. They always seem to misjudge things. if not for BD we may still be in bad shape.
I've been here since 2016. I'm just now pissed for not getting out in 2018 for $5.48. The point is that I ended up loading up instead, but this could still work out. The jury is still out. Like I said. We need PROFITS, PROFITS, PROFITS.
Jim99999 wrote: This offering ($1.2B) will cover about half of the remaining debt due by Jan 2023.
Jim
BBDB859 wrote: Hey Bicente.
I hope you're right buddy.
Because this year is going to tell us where this outfit will be going.
I'm not even worried about the debt any more. With this offering we've kicked the can down the street to 2024. Now all I care about is the cashburn/usage.
You'd think that they would be spending 24/7 trying to figure out how to make this company profitable.
But I think that they might still have issues with old remaining/lingering shite from BT, and some other divestitures. Which we're not being told. Or maybe just some remaining skeletons in the closet from development costs in the Global 7,500 & or CSeries. Who knows? I'm just guessing here. But $400M is huge for cashburn. When it happened in Q1, I had thought that, they wrote off the $400M because that's what they got less from Alstom for the BT closing. So they couldn't pay $400M of commitments with that $400M loss of BT closing revenue. But those funds should be in dispute. Bombardier said that they would dispute it. I'm pretty sure they were banking on that $400M cash to pay some things off. When they didn't get it. That's when when shite hit fan.
Oh well all that is behind us now. Let's see what they do in Q2.
Honestly I'm not even worried about the 2.4B share float anymore either. Why? Because they can easily fix the proble by a 2 for 1 forward split @ $5 a share, if and when it gets there (to $5 dollars I mean). So we jump up to $10/share. it's better for the share image.
BRP as you are saying is a good lesson for them. But can they start to make profits here??? That's the key. The key to better ratings, The key to EPS, the key to higher share prices, the key to investor confidence, the key to keeping LTD boogeyman away from the door. If they can eventually get us up to $100/share, like BRP, and a float of 1.2 shares. Then I'm happy. Otherwise this stock was a colossal waste of time. I'd rather have stayed with AMD, or even Blackberry, or even Berrick. I hate to regress.
I'm heading to the course. scotch and cigars with friends, to drown all my sorrows.