RE:Talks with a financial advisor todayWell ecolo101, today is not a good day to gauge a stock's share price performance. With lower share volumes ahead of a holiday weekend, the shorters and day trades tend to be able to control share prices better and that certainly proved true today. At the same time a .47 cent move lower on a $46 stock isn't exactly an earth shattering move.
Right now the sentiment on BCE is not positive but to me, when there's this many analyst not recommending the stock it's time to buy, especially with a major like BCE. Case in point, I believe you also post on Newmont and a few weeks ago Newmont was hitting new lows and there wasn't an analyst in sight that was recommending the stock. Even most posters were not convinced it had bottomed.
I was posting then when the stock was about $42 that Newmont was at or very near a 52 week low and that it was time to buy. Go read my posts if you wish. But as with BCE many Newmont shareholders suffered a severe beat down and so many sat on the sidelines waiting for the right time. Well, Newmont dropped a little more to just shy of $40 CAD so my bottom call was off slightly by a couple bucks. Fast forward a couple weeks and Newmont hit a high of $49.17 CAD today. That $9 move up in a couple weeks equates to over a 20% return and that's not counting the dividend (that I received yesterday).
So my point is that many of these analysts tend to not be too accurate with their buy/sell recommendations and you only need to watch the results of their Top Picks on BNN to see generally how poorly they actually do. And when they're negative on a stock, that just puts more doubt in the minds of retail investors who are then convinced that they definitely shouldn't buy because well the analysts aren't buying so why should I? In my experience though, analyst have a tendency to rate a stock as a buy only when they want to sell you the shares they already hold and profited on, or they've finished loading up on all the shares they want to buy and now want retail to come in and help run the share price up so they can sell their shares to retail who are always late to the party.
Since many of the institutional investors seem to have already off loaded their BCE shares over the past several months (hence the severe share price beat down) and the shares are now bottoming, they will soon be recommending them again. To make money you need to stay infront of them, not behind them but requires most retail to stray out of their comfort zone and well we all know that's not natural.
Right now the biggest risk I see to BCE shares going much lower from here (i.e. 10%) is if we were to get a serious correction on the S&P which would likely take everything down with it. To me, buying some BCE in stages is the prudent way to play BCE but buying none in hopes of jumping in at the right time doesn't seem like too smart of a strategy to me. But then hey, I'm no analyst so what do I know? I just go by fundamentals and technicals. I don't always get it right but most of the time I do. I bought some BCE today and still have plenty of cash so if it ever gets to $40 bucks like some here are suggesting it could get to I'll be more than happy to buy some more.
With Q1 now done, and a new quarter starting next week, the institutions wil be looking to sell off some of their big Q1 winners and redeploy that capital to some of the beaten down losers and BCE paying an 8.7% dividend will no doubt be on their list because unlike retail, they will buy in tranches and not in one fell swoop.
My opinion only, please DYODD.
HB77